PredictIt Update (Followup)

I have no idea what’s going on. (Which is probably the case for most markets and most traders, but at least I’m clear about it.)

I felt a shudder in the creepy deadpool for SCOTUS (don’t blame me for the creepiness; the justices are the fruit loops that work until they die… they’re free citizens…. they can retire whenever they want). I made a small purchase and then something happened a few hours later. Not sure what.

I started with some shares in RBG for Dirtnap bought shortly after the broken ribs. I’d been sitting the fence on whether Thomas had the common sense to enjoy retirement and maybe go fishing. Then RBG showed up with broken bones and I bought in on her. So did everyone else. I missed the good pickins’ and locked in at $0.73. Oh well.

After that I judged the price was too high for a good ROI and slept thought the next few “revelations” (the “unexpected” cancer operation and the subsequent no show for work).

You can see the 90 day chart here:

The lines are the price. The bars are the volume (these are small markets). The chart (annoyingly) starts right after the broken ribs (in early November) so you can see RBG is the highest price but you can’t see the most leftward plateau start. The ribs plateau slowly drew back down as the press reported she was ripping phone books in half and one arming kettle bells. But then you can see another abrupt rise. That’s the “unexpected” cancer. Note the peak in activity. I’m pretty sure that’s not a lot of people getting excited that Thomas will retire.

The next peak in activity is in January. I assume it’s the “no show for work” situation. Again the price raises but after the initial panic it slowly dies down as the press reports that it’s totally normal and DON’T LOOK BEHIND THE CURTAIN.

After yesterday’s post it dawned on me that it was basically flat since the ribs and it’s hardly like the no show and cancer are not cumulative new information.

Put another way, if I was pleased with shares bought at $0.73 in November what’s the issue with shares at $0.75 two months later? So I dumped another six pack’s worth of cash and doubled my holdings.

Here’s a hourly report for today:

Before breakfast I bought into a dead market at $0.75 and was like “meh”. A couple hours later the activity (blue bars) shot up and someone dumped RBG and now I’m in the red. WTF? Was she seen jogging? What changed? Sometimes I wonder what’s going on in the world of people who have cable TV news.

About AdaptiveCurmudgeon

Adaptive Curmudgeon is handsome, brave, and wise.
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