To distract myself from impending dentistry I watched CNN (on mute). In a drooling Novocain haze, I saw two “topics” and analyzed the “cycles” that go with each topic.
Topic #1 was an image of books. That’s how the press communicates “judge” or “lawyer”. Clearly the topic was Kavanaugh. Supreme Court nominees (and recently every executive nomination) follow what I call “Preening in The Mirror”.
In stage A everyone picks a side. In 2018 this takes 5 minutes. Trump is (nominally) party R so party D opposes Kavanaugh like their very soul is at stake. They’re not entirely faking it. Kool-Aid drinkers are so invested that they really think their soul is determined by Congressional votes. Holy Screwtape! Whether the nominee is Socrates or Barney the Dinosaur, nobody changes their minds after this stage.
In Stage B opponents tear into the nominee like a pack of wolves. It starts by calling the nominee an idiot. There is no exception. The opposition always calls their adversary an idiot. If he has six PhDs and can cure cancer with the power of his mind some troglodyte who’s never had a job that didn’t come from connections will insult his or her intelligence. The “you’re an idiot” attack can readily draw blood. Not that any either is a genius, but Sara Palin and Dan Quayle got more shit than they deserved. Heck, Carter had a degree in physics but was dismissed as a “peanut farmer”. Maybe he was a lousy president but nobody with a journalism degree should mock someone who passed physics.
Stage C is “Preening in The Mirror”. If a Senator spends 20 minutes “questioning” the nominee without asking a question… that’s preening. This goes on until someone stops it or the entire world dies of boredom. If the nominee makes an unforced error Senators will swarm like a ham sandwich has been tossed in a piranha tank. Luckily, judges rarely make such errors.
Like getting pecked to death by ducks, the nominee must smile while nitwits ritually debase him. It’s embarrassing to watch but Senators love it. This is how you know Congress is filled with middle school playground bullies. The cruelty warns future nominees with a low bullshit tolerance to preemptively bow out.
“Preening” is also when the freaks come out. They’ll chant on the streets, burn a flag, throw a pie, hurl bricks at a Starbucks, get tased… that sort of shit. I haven’t watched the news but I assume pro choice protesters and maybe global warming people are “disrupting” hearings. For all I know alien abductees and vegan furries are taking their turn. 2018 is not a time of serious people. The press will mercilessly stalk and harass the nominee’s family and friends. The circus atmosphere creeps me out.
At stage D, opponents have a choice. They can vote like adults or go full retard. This year, full retard is a given. They’ll try rhetorical shenanigans. “Have you stopped beating your wife yet?” Perhaps a perjury trap. Senator Bullshit asks “Have you driven a Ford Lately?” The nominee says “No, I own a Toyota”. Then the Senator shrieks J’ACCUSE and documents that three years ago the nominee rented a Ford at an airport. “Given this photo of a Ford at the airport I conclude the nominee is a lying shithead who’s literally worse than Hitler’s ass crack. He can’t be trusted with the sacred Constitution I’ve been ignoring my whole career. I demand that everything start all over with some fresh meat! Nominate someone else for another round of ritualistic hazing!” Luckily, the third-rate mind of a politician rarely outwits a judge.
Stage E is the disgusting endgame. They dredge up and/or invent an “unexpected” sudden, unverifiable, impossible to defend against, accusation. It’s best of it’s something from a zillion years ago. It doesn’t have to be illegal but ideally it sounds weird (“Romney put a dog on the roof!”). Drug legalization means Bork getting Borked over smoking a joint wouldn’t get traction now. The tradition is unsupported accusations of sexual harassment that are unverifiable, possibly not even illegal, and exceed the statute of limitations.
Clarence Thomas is so grumpy plants won’t grow near him, but for one brief moment Congress compared him to a high-wattage sexaholic. “I’m shocked shocked by this unfounded accusation! Good thing I discovered it 72 hours before the confirmation vote.” Everyone knows it’s as legit as an e-mail from a Nigerian prince. (Note that a Clinton or a Kennedy might string together dozens of “incidents” but for Thomas it was only once.)
The hard part is guessing the subject of the inevitable unsupported accusation. Sex seems burned out. They’ve been throwing hookers at Trump for years and it’s not affecting his supporters. “Billionaires get blowjobs? Quelle surprise! All this time I thought supermodels materialized out of thin air around a billionaire because they were attracted to his mind.” Also, with the whole “MeToo” thing what male hasn’t been accused of sexual harassment? (Aside from Pence who’s carefully bulletproof and looks wiser every day.)
I decided to predict Stage E will come soon and it will be “he did something pathetic and stupid in college”. He’ll be accused of cheating on a test? Yeah, that sounds good. I’m calling it something academic from long ago.
Kavanaugh looks surprisingly young. Can they push the clock back to high school? But nobody cares if you cheat in high school. Underage drinking?
Also, they showed some protesters being dragged away. Stage C in progress is verified!
Only time will tell. Y’all keep an eye out for Stage E because that’s when you know it’s almost over. I predict an accusation from a biased source that’s probably not illegal and completely unverifiable. (It’ll be made by an NPR Reporter or some Senator’s wife or kid.) “This one time at band camp my best friend, who’s name I forget, told me that in 1983 Kavanaugh drank three Red Bulls and then peed on the college’s geraniums.”
That’s my prediction. Call me on it if I’m wrong.
Stage F is the vote. The vote will be identical to whatever would’ve happened at Stage A. Everything else was bullshit.
The Dentist came in, gave me more Novocain (thanks!) and left. I think she did someone else’s appointment to procrastinate on the bearded freak. I can’t blame her. I had time to observe further.
Topic #2 was a hurricane. Sweet! The “Never Let A Crisis Go To Waste” cycle is classic!
Stage A is the prediction of Armageddon. Usually pumped up with assumptions. If the storm hits while the tide is high, and at the same time hammerhead sharks are in mating season, then it’ll be the end of life as we know it. Bonus points for a total lack of rational limits. “This is because the sharks will breed with eagles and shark-eagles kill everything!”
Don’t forget the blame! If the president if party of R, it’s his fault. Even if the storm is in Botswana. Or in the case of George Bush Jr, a tsunami in the Indian Ocean. If none of that sticks, global warming caused it; which is due to your failure to buy a Prius. Jerk!
Stage B is the press standing in the rain and hamming it up. The “Dan Rather Moment”
The scene shifted and… Oh. My. God!
Some dude was standing next to a road sign and flopping around in the wind. The Dan Rather career move was right on time!
What fun! You go, weather dude!
I looked at the trees behind him. Gusty winds, but nothing that’ll jack up the balance on a grown man. Dude was a shitty actor. Stage B confirmed!
Stage C is when (some) Americans act like adults. The Cajun Navy, Waffle House, and Walmart handle things like a boss. This is a new addition to the cycle and I love it.
Stage D is wind down and allocation of free money. Rational citizens shrug; “it’s just fucking weather” and start mucking out basements. Politicians whine that their particular district no longer supports life. This can only be fixed with Federal funds. NPR blames the nearest Republican.
There’s one exception, Puerto Rico. Even New Orleans or Fukushima got back in the saddle but Puerto Rico is stuck in Stage D. I guess they can’t leave Stage D until they finally consume all the supplies from Hurricane Maria?
The dentist came in. She shoved the TV aside and whipped out whatever they call things that look like pliers.
Things happened. Trust me, you don’t want a description.
The aftermath in the next post.
Hammer-head Shark/eagles kill the Cajun Navy. That Novacaine works really good on you.
Kavanaugh:
Stage A – R opposes D President’s nomination of Garland, leaves seat unfilled for 11 months…
Stage B – reverse the R&D – still applies. btw-who called Kavanaugh an idiot? I heard “violent toward women” but not “idiot”
Stage C is equal in both sides of the aisle
Stage D can happen just as well after the investigation is complete, what’s the rush already???
Stage E It looks as if they know he’s guilty so they need to push it thru asap. If he’s innocent, he should more than welcome the investigation.
Hurricane: Imagine a year later and still no power. Welcome to the poorest parts of Puerto Rico.
Blame: Equal on both sides. Didn’t most of you blame Obama for everything?
AC – Come for the phenology, stay to challenge the extreme far right politics.
Does anyone want to discuss preening among the tea party?
Does anyone want to comment on Trump claiming the world was laughing at the US only before he was President? I agree they’re not laughing at our country – they’re only laughing at Trump. He’s certainly more funny than truthful!
Both sides now.
This is a great comment and deserves a more complete response. Unfortunately, I’m nowhere near decent wifi right now. Please be patient.
Sorry for the delay the blog’s only a hobby y’all. I was busy with all sortsa’ shit.
Hm… First of all, I like where you’re going with the Garland thing. Garland was surely a Topic and it definitely followed a script of Stages. But just because it’s a SCOTUS Nominee doesn’t make it “Preening In The Mirror”. I’m trying to think of examples of delay tactics. Until I think of a better term let’s call the Stages that were kicked off on Garland something like “Operation Speedbump”. Stage A, something happens and the president is a lame duck. Stage B, one party says “we must attend to the people’s business toot sweet… definitely before the election” the other party says “nope, gotta’ be deliberative and take our time… definitely after the election”. (As I think about it that would be just about every budget near an election cycle.) I agree that Operation Speedbump definitely nailed Garland. Perhaps Stage C is a bunch of calculations about what the vote count will look like after the vote. I always had the inkling that the Party of D didn’t push the “do it now” angle too hard because everyone thought Hillary was guaranteed to win and Obama had already had “his” nominations; Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan. Oh.. and I think I see the last stage. Stage D is the brief period of time between when there was an election and the new crop gets seated. If there’s a big change everyone on the losing side goes into overdrive trying to get their favorite thing done “before it’s all over” and the opposite side sits tight like a ton of bricks.
At any rate, Garland was the victim of delay for sure. But not an October Surprise. At least I can’t remember one.
Next: You are also correct that I missed the idiot thing. I expect “you’re an idiot” to be part of the “Preening in the Mirror” script but I don’t recall anyone calling Kavinaugh an idiot. I think I remember folks saying that Bork was a weirdo because he had briefly lived with his mother after his divorce, but I’m not really sure of that. Upon reflection I can’t recall it for other SCOTUS nominations like Sotamayor or Thomas. (I barely remember Kagan at all so that was either a mellow cycle or I was busy with something else that season.) So maybe SCOTUS nominees don’t get the idiot treatment? I can see that. In fact, the “you’re an idiot thing” was more from my memory of battles over Reagan, Bush Jr., Obama, and (of course) Trump. I don’t recall a lot of traction on Bush Sr. or Clinton as an idiot. I think Carter was so loathed that nobody bothered to call him an idiot. It’s possible that Americans love to call most (or all) of their president an idiot but not their Judges?
Next: Puerto Rico is Puerto Rico’s fault. Eventually one’s situation is a result of one’s choices. If they can’t maintain a power grid that’s a deeper and more systematic problem than who’s the president or the weather. I accept that islands have unique logistical issues but folks maintain civilization in Hawaii and Alaska (more or less) without blaming (or giving credit to) Presidents.
Next: Speaking of phenology I saw a Wooly Bear Caterpillar (I think it’s an Isabella Tiger Moth or Banded Woolybear: Pyrrharctia isabella) and it was entirely black! I’ve never seen that before. I’ve never matched much weather prediction to their famous black and brown bands but I sure as heck have never seen one without the brown band. It freaks me out! I’m pretty sure that means White Walkers will come down from Calgary and kick my ass!
Also: My spell check recognizes the discredited pseudoscience of “phrenology” but not the completely reasonable ecological observation of “phenology”. I think this says a lot about society as a whole.
Finally: Preening among the TEA Party? Ha ha ha… you mean tri-cornered hats aren’t groovy?
There’s a lot of common ground and if you’ll forgive my occasional right wing bias I’m really shooting for a “we’ve seen this movie before” way of thinking. Or more like “I can see the matrix”? I’m pretty sure observant folks on both sides can work their way through the “panic du jour” and see underlying patterns. After all, if either of us had gone into a coma at the nomination on July 9th and came to on September 28th… couldn’t we have dismissed with the intervening 11 weeks of “debate” and guessed the vote count based only on what we knew of party membership on July 9th? Sadly, that idea sure won’t fit on a bumper sticker.
Thanks for your patience and thoughtful comments. I’ll have to block out time to ridicule Trump in your honor?
Time to go to work …
Donald J. Trump
Verified account @realDonaldTrump
42m42 minutes ago
Just started, tonight, our 7th FBI investigation of Judge Brett Kavanaugh. He will someday be recognized as a truly great Justice of The United States Supreme Court!
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1045832351211835392
My guestimation:
Stage C The FBI clears Kavanaugh, finds him to be clean as a whistle. Restores his credibility?
Stage D On the other hand Christine Ford might be shaken in her boots if the FBI comes a knockin’ at her door. Her “go fund me” climbs to $700,000 to date.
As a woman, I found her testimony, facial expressions and pauses to be extremely immature for a woman her age. Looking into her background, this well educated woman is not naive or stupid. Do a fast wiki search to give basic information.
36 years ago
The first thing a young 15 year old woman would do if she were sexually assaulted would be to call her parents Or grab her (best) friend out of the party room to go home. She would never flee without her friend or abandon the person who drove her 6.2 miles to the party.
Move on nothing to see here
Media ratings have sky rocketed over the roof. Donations flowing in like a tidal wave.
Win, win for both Unipartys before the 2018 election wouldn’t you say?