What Are We Learning?

I’ve seen this movie before. You have too. It’s easy to forget but there’s a ready aid to recollection. Deliberately keep the events of the day at arm’s length. Perspective reminds us that most “momentous” events are forgotten immediately, the rest are forgotten gradually. Only a fraction leave a mark.

Here’s one example among many; the great depression left its mark but Y2K didn’t. Ironically, if you dig up news of the time, the opposite appears true. During the great depression the word they used for their momentous event was “just another shitty day”. In modern parlance that’s “this is the new normal”. It was a long slow transformation. One could experience it yet not even recognize what was happening. On the other hand, newspapers (remember them?) from late 1999 describe a people fretting that Y2K was lurking under their bed at night. Y2K loomed, it could have been huge, it wasn’t, it passed, it was forgotten. We know this. People in December 1999, did not.

The memory of past fads and mass movements makes you seem odd. Keep the press at bay and the phone on silent. In a few years you will will note but not swim in the swirling currents of public opinion.

This is why I privately mourn a dead dog and publicly write of spilled soda. I do this while pandemic is on everyone’s mind. I deliberately snub the gorilla in the room.

Why? Because the bastard doesn’t merit my respect.

Don’t get me wrong, gorillas are dangerous. I didn’t say ignore the brute. Show some damn sense! Never turn your back on him. Take precautions, handle his shit, and then carry on. That’s the adult way to meet any challenge.

This gorilla, infectious disease, is a once mighty adversary. In his heyday, he was a genuine bad ass; racking up a long and storied record of suffering and death. Even now, he’s no wimp. There will be suffering. There will be death. That’s what gorillas do. But we’re up for the challenge.

No death is insignificant and no suffering is irrelevant. But mankind has recently fought this gorilla and won. Won hard.

In the last two centuries, humanity learned to plumb toilets, bathe frequently, manage our food, vaccinate, and so forth. We beat the gorilla senseless. Our population went from a billion to nearly eight billion. We did it with flush toilets and soap. We also benefited from a handful of very smart folks in lab coats that regularly curbstomp this particular dumbass gorilla like a champ. Go team humanity!

Does this mean I won’t get sick? Nope. We all fight the gorilla. We fight him alone, or perhaps with medical attention, but also with warm houses, ample food, and running water. Some of us will lose. Such is the lot of mortal man. Regardless, humanity collectively and routinely kicks the gorillas ass. Enjoy that happy thought.

There’s a second part to my ruminations. This is a challenge, but it’s not yet transformative. Society after will be changed compared to before, but I think only incrementally so. A little here and a little there and much of it might be very good. But the talking heads on TV imply greater changes and I doubt that. Likely, by mid 2020, this will already be fading. In 2030 it’ll seem not unlike Y2K… the killshot that missed.

Why do I say this? Because it is not changing minds. (At least not yet.) An event is a big honking deal if and only if people start learning.

We humans are a dense lot; clueless hominids clutching smartphones like a battery powered talisman. We see but only dimly. We seek facts but usually only note the ones that are hurled at us. We hear but it is propaganda. We change rarely. We learn reluctantly.

That’s the tell for a big deal… learning. Think of the big turning points in your life. Real turning points imply learning. That one time in band camp when you did that thing? You learned something by it.

Don’t take my word for it. Look around. Who’s minds have changed?

Right now, people in suits are faffing about in Congress. They’re hyped up to “do something”. What are they going to do? Hurl money. Congress’ solution to everything is to cut a check. Will that cure a sick child? Will that stop a virus? Will that make breakfast for an ill single mother? Will that change social habits? Will that teach Bob in accounting to wash his hands? Nope.

I’ve never seen Congress learn. But I’ll tell you this, if they did… it would be a big deal. If members of Congress headed to a Baltimore hospital and started scrubbing the floors and disinfecting the walls… I’d fuckin’ pay attention! So long as they’re pissing away money it’s just “same shit, different stated reason”.

Someone somewhere rebranded “bread and circuses” as “universal basic income” (UBI). An idea the American people don’t seem to like (possibly because they have at least rudimentary experience with math and human behavior.) So when hypothetical (not yet realized) deaths of thousands loom they changed UBI to “Phase 3” (or whatever they’re calling it this millisecond). Same shit, different name. People that like the idea of UBI in general also like it as a respiratory illness. As if virus deaths and cash payments are related. Maybe they’re right and and this’ll make everything better. Maybe they’re wrong. Regardless, they sure as hell didn’t come up with UBI as a tactic to slay this gorilla. I recall it’s usually pitched as a solution for homelessness, or inequality, or racism, or whatever the politician uses for bait that day. Nobody’s changing opinions about spewing box lots of cash because of today’s gorilla.

What about the opposite side of the aisle, the sort that hates UBI but loves deregulation? Are they any different? Not really. What are they doing? Suspending regulation. I have more sympathy for that approach, but it doesn’t mean I’m learning. I like deregulation with or without the gorilla to justify it. Deregulators aren’t learning and neither am I. I’m just cheering people for doing what I already wanted them to do.

Consider “survivalists”; formerly called “pioneers” and now renamed with the balless Newspeak euphemism “prepper”. They had adequate reserves in advance. They see this virus as justification to their actions. I have sympathy with that approach. I have two freezers full of food and all sorts of associated shit. I keep a full pantry with or without the gorilla. Whether it’s COVID19, a Russkie ICBM, or a hurricane, advance stores is a tool some of us like to use. The folks that don’t like that approach (they correctly realize it’s a PITA) piss and moan about hoarding. Because that’s what they do. They piss and moan. It’s the tool they prefer. One man’s “preparation” is another man’s “hoarding”. As flu rampages through our imagination and slowly shambles toward reality, nobody is changing their mind. Everyone’s walking the path they already chose.

I’m a loner by nature. Introvert. More likely to talk to a stack of firewood than a stranger. (Better conversation.) I’m self quarantining. But I do damn near the same thing every flu season (with admittedly mixed results). Others are gregarious, desperate to be with the herd. So they’re breaking quarantines or at least bitching mightily about the situation. We are all doing what we do.

People who hate Trump are blaming him for acting too slow. Or acting too soon. (I can’t remember which… they’re almost interchangeable.) People who like Trump (or at least his actions) are supporting his choices; lauding progress but also forgiving what seems like a stumbling start to this particular race.

People who like open borders for political reasons are quiet that they’re now closed for biological ones. They’re not changing their mind, they’re just waiting for an opportune moment to press their chosen choice. People who like tighter borders are reinforced in their beliefs; even though no border stopped COVID19  anywhere.

Speaking of borders, nobody acknowledges that the TSA can barely stop a Glock much less a virus. In fact, the TSA is a decades old solution to another gorilla… a solution hastily conceived, launched amid panic, and laughably inefficient in practice. It persists in its current form because it already exists. No particular other reason. Its effectiveness will never be revisited. To examine actions and see it they’re working creates learning. We monkeys hate to learn.

People who favor private medicine are eager to buy whatever medicines and vaccines come on-line from whoever sells them. They tend to overlook the toll this is taking on hard working providers. People who favor socialized medicine are eager to increase government involvement. They tend to overlook the CDC screwing the pooch on testing kits.

People who like big government are applauding orders that we shelter in place and gleefully submit. People who like individual initiative shout encouragement for truckers delivering food and workers keeping the lights on… while doing exactly the opposite of self quarantine.

This is why the current panic of 2020 is going to fade. Our fight with this gorilla may have ripple effects but lead to only incremental change. I say this because of the absence of learning; no changes in behavior.

I look for indication I’m wrong. I look for a big government UBI fan fretting over the debt. I look for someone who would cheer a governor’s curfew fretting that future iterations of Dick Cheney can shut down Whole Foods. I look for a technocrat wondering why China, which controls subjects in a way California can only dream about, didn’t keep the lid on this. I look for an Obamacare fan who mocked Sarah Palin’s “Death Panels” trembling at decisions made to (inflicted on?) the elderly in Italy. And no, a loner like me isn’t about to join a group and work within their framework.

These aren’t happening. Everyone is doing what they can… which is great. Everyone is staying in their lane… which means it’s going to have limited effect on the future.

Good luck y’all. Kick the gorilla’s ass. And if you learn something… more power to you.

A.C.