In the run up to the 2016 election, the press was unanimous. There was lockstep, unwavering, complete, unrelenting, unquestioned, utter, total, belief that Hillary Clinton wasn’t just going to win but win hard. Trump, we were assured, was an ignorant troglodyte incapable of doing anything but demonstrating how stupid the non-elite had gotten. Hillary, they insisted, was pure walking genius; simply incapable of losing.
The fish could not see the water in which they swam. I could. I wondered why I was different. I still wonder. I found it unnerving; like being a non-believer in a city run by a cult. It’s the sort of thing you have to experience to understand.
Nothing the press said matched what I saw in real life America. Not even close. Notably, on a road trip right before the scheduled coronation of Mrs. Clinton, I kept a clipboard within reach while I drove. I marked how many Trump signs I saw versus how many Clinton signs. At the end of that trip I had a plethora of check marks in the Trump column and a scant few in the Hillary column. Meanwhile, my truck’s radio had never let up on a constant barrage of “it is pre-ordained that Hillary will win”. It was a long drive.
That evening, after I checked into a hotel for the night, I had a stiff drink at the hotel bar. I nursed my liquor and thought “we are being lied to”.
The next day I shrugged and got back to work… because that’s what regular people do; we go about the business of living. These are politicians after all, not Gods.
A few weeks later there was a national (and to some degree planetary) eruption of cognitive dissonance as fish discovered there was water. They encountered, however reluctantly, creatures who are not fish, and recoiled to learn that these aberrations breathe air. The caterwauling has not ceased. I thought folks would eventually calm down but now I wonder. Can one engage a religion (and that’s what it was) so deeply that they never return? How dreadful that fate must be!
Fast forward to 2020. The people that believe Trump never won the election are desperately trying to impeach him, lest he win again… which to them, will be the first time… because “shut up”.
Meanwhile, all signs point toward a Trumpslide. Probably not along the lines of Reagan’s crushing second term election (a 49 state win); demographics, social media, and propaganda now preclude such a uniform mandate. But certainly a bit more than the 2016 squeaker. Everyone knows Trump has to win beyond “margin of cheat”; especially Trump. He’s working on it. He doesn’t coast. He’s not counting on party or employees to win for him. From his point of view, nothing is assured but it’s looking good.
What’s interesting is that the wind wasn’t always blowing Trump’s way. As Scott Adams has said (I’m paraphrasing); “All the Democrats have to do to win is not be crazy.” He’s right. Any sane, non-BS candidate at the helm of a calm statesmanlike party could unseat the Orange Menace handily. However, people are what they are and they do what they want to do. From certain angles it looks like they’ve gone full retard. As they say, there’s no coming back from that.
As far as I can tell (and barring a black swan event) there is one and only one competitor that could beat Trump. Basically the only guy people vote “for” instead of “as a calculation against some other asshole“.
Hold on to your seats. It’s Bernie.
Quit laughing. I’m serious.
I don’t want him to win. I’m just saying he’s probably the only one that can beat Trump.
I don’t like Bernie’s policies. I’m happy to dismiss him as a commie bastard but that’s irrelevant. When I try to assess who, among all assembled, can defeat Trump; it’s Bernie. Aside from Bernie, there’s a gaggle of forgettables and a few failures. Who’s not going to win? Hair sniffing squishy DC bred Biden ‘aint going to win. Nor will Elizabeth Warren and her 1/1024th heritage. Nor the exquisitely gay Buttigieg. (Buttigieg’s candidacy is a human joke about identity politics. His experience is from being the mayor of South Bend Indiana. Quick! As fast as you can, name the last mayor of South Bend Indiana! You can’t? That’s because nobody cares about the mayor of South Bend Indiana. Nobody has ever cared about the mayor of South Bend Indiana. We live in a time of unserious people making odd choices in lieu of reason. The party of D is legitimately running a candidate who’s main qualification is how he utilizes his genitalia. You can’t make that up! Perhaps he ought to start a line of scented candles?)
The other tell is that the Democratic party (as differentiated from Democrat voters) is trying to kill Bernie’s candidacy. They’re oddly desperate to get him off the stage. They did it in 2016 and pissed off a lot of people. They’re trying again in 2020. There are three times I’ve seen a political party try to nuke their own serious contender with a lot of popular support; Ronald Reagan, Donald Trump, and Bernie Sanders. Perhaps there’s a moment when a party recognizes a person that will do his own thing… and they cannot abide it? Perhaps it’s better to lose than have a winner on your ticket who thinks independently? Ask “never Trumpers”. They might have words on the subject.
As far as I know, virtually nobody agrees with my assessment. The press has lockstep, unwavering, complete, unrelenting, unquestioned, utter, total, belief that Trump would eat Bernie alive if they ever put that doddering old man in a shark tank with Trump. I have my doubts but who am I to disagree?
Interestingly, I’ve found one person with a similar opinion. I found it at Grim’s Hall:
Go there and read it.
Also, and in this I will brook no crap, be polite! All comments on my blog will be seemly or deleted. I’m not linking to Grim’s Hall to start a food fight. We can all entertain notions with with we disagree (such as the suitability of Bernie as an American president) and lets try to do so with character. One doesn’t have to like Bernie to recognize he’s cut from different cloth than weak kneed creatures like Biden.
I’m sure Trump knows precisely what I’m talking about. I’m also sure he’s prepared for and fully willing to take on any contender on earth. He certainly has a tendency to win; regardless of and not due to the caliber of his challengers. If it’s Bernie, he might have a tougher fight. And maybe that’s for the best. Competition brings out the best in both sides. I doubt Bernie will survive his own party, but if he does 2020 may shape up to be a hell of a ride.
A.C.
I’m making the popcorn. Butter or chili? Both?
Grated parmesan cheese.
AC
I suspect you’re right about Bernie. I think he’s captured the attention of the left wing and represents their values. The Project Veritas videos indicate his campaign staff is dedicated to the cause.
All this politics is hard for an old soldier like me to stomach. I bought into the ideal of America, where a man could do as he pleases so long as he harms no one else. Where patriotism was a civi virtue to be encouraged and communists to be denied at every corner. Where a mans character and behavior were all that really mattered. That world seems to have gone away. At least according to the loudest voices in the media.
2020 is full tilt crazy. Politicians are racing one another to tear down the institutions that made America different, peaceful, and prosperous. That seems I’ll advised. Like 3d Century Rome ill advised. I pray for our leaders, whoever they might turn out to be.
America’s a big place with lots of people. Hard to find one size fits all solutions for a customer like that.
I applaud your use of a power of two, i.e., 1024. As for politics, Donnie J is way too hyperbolic for my taste. And still marginally preferable IMHO.
Meanwhile, Amazon has canceled my order for face masks which I placed six days ago. This is after canceling a similar order while it was in my cart before checking out. The universe is trying to tell me something… Turn off the radio and TV, brother, and pass the hand sanitizer.
I replicated your yard-sign analysis here in Michigan.
The two front runners are Seamless Gutters and Hansen Windows. I think they are Scandinavian.
Outstanding!
To paraphrase a now famous statement “At this point, what difference does it make?” Democrats are going to be bitter. Republicans are going to be smarmy.
And most of us are just sick of Kabuki.
This line, “Basically the only guy people vote “for” instead of “as a calculation against some other asshole“.” is great!
Well Bernie is indeed tribe. As are, if you haven’t noticed, Schiff and Nadler and Schumer. And Bernie’s campaign has admitted that they yearn for the “good old days” of their Messiahs – Lenin and Stalin. After all, the gulags paid a “living wage”!
Bernie certainly could have won in 2016 if Hillary hadn’t pre-rigged the Dem primaries. He technically did win those if you’re counting votes. In the actual election a more energized Dem base could have easily put him over the finish line. Then he would set about turning the U.S
into Venezuela and some people would need to start getting their apocalypse supply cabinets set up for use
In 2020, Bern already installed a stent and the political season hasn’t officially started yet.
The race for craziest left clownshow yet is about to begin.
My prediction is that Bernie wins the primary but loses the convention, as the Party finds some way to hand the nomination to someone who wasn’t even in the primary.
As of this morning, I’m thinking that a pandemic will undermine trust in the Establishment (and therefore its candidate, Handsy), and thus help Bernie as compared to anyone else remaining in the Dem primary. In the general election, well, we’ve seen the conflict between Trump and the Establishment, so he may well get a bigger boost than Bernie.
Seeing as how I’ve just moved back to a region of the country that is universally despised by my peers, and the sheer genocidal lunacy printed on the front page of the New York Times, I seriously hope these people *never* gain power again. (Well, more than they have.) They’ll try to hurt us when they get it. I have, by my family, location, and the nature of our livelihoods, thrown my lot in with the Kulaks: political stealth mode won’t last forever.
My urban coworkers are extremely starry eyed about Sanders. They want to give Real Socialism ™ a chance. Their souls are owned by whoever will promise to relieve their student debts – they have a direct primal interest in that, since it’s an economic millstone about their necks.
They think we flyover-people are useless to civilization and should be cleared off the prime land we squat on. (Imagine trying to keep a straight face in a faculty-dinner when everyone around you discusses how they’re going to carve up your homeland once the annoying squatters have been driven off.) The “educated city people” have no empathy whatsoever and don’t see us as their countrymen – something I have a hard time getting across to my parents’ generation.
Nevermind how a civil war would go (I have my doubts. Our enemy is organized and we are not.) The leftists are arrogant enough to start the violence – something I dearly hope can be avoided.
I watched the inauguration from a hotel room during an ice storm. I thought Trump was a bit goofy but better than Hillary and maybe the Dems would level up and field better candidates next cycle. I’m a big fan of competition. Since the ice storm had taken me off the clock early I settled in to watch the show on TV.
I was applied!
When I saw people freaking out on the streets and breaking windows and so forth I though “these people cannot be trusted with power”. Never give power to someone who throws a tantrum when they don’t get their way! If the Democrats said “We will come back in 4 years with a much better option and defeat Trump fairly” I’d have welcomed it with open arms. That’s the mature thing to do and indicates they’re ready for the responsibility that comes with power. What they said was “losing is intolerable and I’m going to riot in the streets until I get my way.” That’s when I decided they are too crazy to have power.
Defeating Trump would be easy for people intent on reasoned, mature, careful governance. They had an easy opportunity. It’s not my fault they wasted 3 years convincing many of us they’re dangerous maniacs. That was self inflicted.
I honestly sincerely hope they get beaten so utterly in 2020 that they learn and improve. They’ve got a good shot in 2024 and if they had candidates that acted like being president is a job for an adult who won’t freak out on me, I’d be super happy.
Slow down just a little with that talk of enemies and civil war. I’ve seen civil war up close and personal in other countries. It ain’t pretty at all. I don’t wish it on anyone. The former Yugoslavians probably wish they could have had a nice orderly divorce instead of the bloodletting that actually developed. Ditto the Shia v Sunni slaughterhouse.
The Reds are a dangerous bunch to be sure. They’re not yet rounding up TradAmericans for the gulag. Yet. Review your Solzhenitsyn for clues on keeping them from power.
Lamenting that the Socialists are organized and motivated to action isn’t enough. Review your lessons from James Madison. Get organized locally. Pick your favorite activity and recruit like minded folks. A little effort winning friends and influencing people can make a big difference in your neighborhood, town, county, etc. Do something other than lament. Every great movement starts small. Witness 45.
America has been through this before. 1920s, 1940s, 1960s. It’s not a new problem. The children shriek loudly in the streets. The adults roll up their sleeves and get to work.
All that said, the Democrats have abandoned all pretense of legitimacy. Maybe they can resurrect their brand or maybe they’ll come up with a new banner like the Whigs. And some adult leadership that understands the consequences of abandoning the rules of polite society.
I concur. Freedom is not found in groups or violence, it is found within. Relocating peacefully to a region where you feel wanted is a better solution than dire predictions and anger.
As much as I hate to admit it, Bernie’s not really a bad choice. I’ve read somewhere, perhaps right here; memory fails me, that Bernie’s got a fast track to wrecking this country. He’ll thrash it in less than four years and then we can all get back to the job of rebuilding it. We already have the instructions; they’re only five or six pages long and have actual written words on them. Not some convoluted series of badly drawn cartoons which look nothing like the parts in hand.
I’ve been hearing that argument for years: “This guy is such a fuck up that if he wins he’ll faceplant everything. Then people will come to their senses and rebuild”. Sounds good but it doesn’t work that way. People get used to a fucked up world. They settle in and live shitty lives quite complacently.
Nor are turns for the better seen until they bloom almost by accident.
I saw it with Carter, it was like the world was going to be grey and poor forever. Then Reagan won despite a party that hated him and press baying the dumb cowboy would cause WWIII. Economic boom that followed was impressive.
It happened almost exactly the same in 2016. In the preceding decade diesel was $4, manufacturing was doomed, Chevy Volts were the future of our cars, and so forth. We were all resigned to “a new normal” of eating gluten free gruel under dim CFL lighting. (I exaggerate for humor.) Then, despite a party that hated him and a press that was baying Orange Man Bad, Trump won and the economy turned on a dime. It shifted so fast and so positive it’s hard to remember the situation before the election. You were there, think about your mood in 2015… how were you predicting your retirement plans would work out compared to now?
So sure Bernie could “commie us into the ground” but it’s not like the people would learn and become different and embrace the constitution and rise to the challenge. They’d just forget what “good times” are like. People are apparently very good at enduring without actively seeking a new path. That too we’ve seen. In the last 20 years I’ve seen people in formerly wealthy Venezuela transition quietly to fretting over food. In my lifetime I’ve seen a society in Iran that once sent women to college, stuff them in burkas. North Korea has switched leaders without a hint of sucking less. Honestly the biggest gains in human freedom in my life were probably China and Russia.
Sadly, I believe you’re correct. I happened to be stationed in West Germany in 1989 and was able to be in Berlin the day the wall cracked. I only wish the citizens of America had that fervor for freedom.
Bernie is a commie, but that means he has a small but enthusiastic group of commies backing him. Nobody wins without enthusiastic core supporters.
Bernie comes across as a human, unlike every other Lefty candidate. He’s a nasty, unlikable human, but at least he doesn’t act like a robot or a lizard.
Bernie is a Socialist, but he’s a National Socialist. Nationalism is one of Trump’s strengths, and Bernie shares it, just a little.
So yes, Bernie is a stronger candidate than any of the others. Yes, that’s why the DNC is sabotaging him, going to cheat him at the convention again. He’s still a no-hoper. He’s a very White old Jew, and much as the Black and Latino voters hate Whites, they hate Jews more. Bernie can’t turn out the minority vote, so Bernie can’t win as a Dem.
I agree with much of what you say. I don’t think he can defeat Trump but he’s the one that’s got the greatest chance and I wouldn’t rule him out. I don’t want him or anyone with his policies near the levers of power but he’s far more human than the majority of DC creatures (both parties) that appear to have been created in vats for the purpose of political office.
I agree that Bernie would have the best chance (except for Tulsi, but she’s a nonentity at this point), but I think that his actual chance is vanishingly small. Trump fights his opponents by belittling them, and hanging monikers on them that stick, and stick forever. When I see Bernie talk, he’s always so angry (not passionate, angry) that I think Trump might actually cause him to have a significant coronary event. Bernie doesn’t really know how to debate, per se, he just knows how to yell about his plans and visions, and Trump thrives on that. It would be incredibly entertaining, watching two old guys go at it, but Trump’s ability to mock his opponents would destroy Sanders.