After a small PredictIt victory calling “no” the 12/10 shutdown there was another chance. They opened a market for “Will OPM indicate government shut down at noon on December 24, 2018?” I was like “Alright, I gotta’ get me a piece of this”. Sadly, life distracted me and I missed the moment.
Here’s my TL;DR version of the situation.
Trump: “You guys don’t get it. I promised to build a wall. I used little words and was very clear about it. If I don’t get something done the people that voted for me will tear me apart like jackals.”
Ann Coulter: “Today’s BORDER WALL CONSTRUCTION UPDATE: Miles completed yesterday-Zero; Miles completed since Inauguration– Zero. NEXT UPDATE TOMORROW.”
Trump: “See what I mean? That’s pretty hard to spin.”
Chuck Schumer: “Get with the program. Republicans always cave. It’s in the manual. Didn’t you get the secret deep swamp manual that is given to all incoming presidents? It’s on chapter 4. There’s a chart and everything. Read the fuckin’ manual!”
Trump: “You’re boring me.”
Schumer: “Dude, it’s simple. You pretend to care and then say something like ‘those mean jerks in congress stopped me’. Then you feel sad at first but you fuck an intern in the oval office and it all goes away. It’s been like that decades. The script is all written out.”
Trump: “Nope. My voters are sick of bullshit. It has to be concrete progress. Like literally made of concrete. If I have to go there and smack Dan Rather’s skull off it I’ll do it. They are tired of ‘hope’, ‘change’, and ‘thousand points of blah blah blah’. They want dozers and cranes in the desert.”
Nancy Pelosi: “We will bury you!”
Trump: “Meh.”
Elizabeth Warren: “We’re not bluffing! We’ll grind the government to a halt.”
Trump: “I give 1/1024th of a shit about your opinion.”
Schumer: “It’ll happen on Christmas Eve. You’ll be totally unpopular with liberals. People will dislike you. They’ll call you mean names like Grinchy McGrincehrson!”
Trump: “I’ll be unpopular ? Oh dear. Should I retire to the fainting couch? You can’t threaten me with unpopularity among people who shriek that I’m Putin’s ass clown. They block roads in Portland and actively wanted to impeach me before I was even sworn in. They’ll always hate me. You’ve already spent two years going scorched earth and so far what’s come out of it is that Stormy Daniels now owes me money. I’m not really worried about it.”
Schumer: “You’ve got a fainting couch too? I use mine all the time. We have common ground.”
Pelosi: “I’ll get you and your little dog too!”
Trump: “I have a dog? I don’t recall a dog. I’ll have to get back to you on that.”
Curmudgeon: “Oh yeah! They’re threatening a guy who’s totally cool with conflict… and they’re threatening him with conflict. I smell volatility! I gotta’ buy in.”
Life: “No time for your on-line games. There’s shit to do.”
PredictIt: “Chance of shutdown is higher than you’d think.”
Curmudgeon: “There’s hippies out there that really think this will happen. I need to fleece them.”
Life: “No time Curmudgeon.”
Schumer and Pelosi: “We want to go to the White House and personally threaten you.”
Trump: “You know the address. I’ll be waiting. Step carefully over the bones of my slain enemies that are strewn around the lawn.”
Schumer and Pelosi: “We’ve come to kick your ass. Let’s meet in private.”
Trump: “Nope. We do this here. We do it now.”
PredictIt: “Red Alert! The president isn’t following the script. What do we do?”
Schumer and Pelosi: “People are watching.”
Trump: “You get used to it. I’m always being watched. I’ve brought this club and I’m going to hit you with it.”
Schumer and Pelosi: “It’s Christmas. People will be sad.”
Trump: “My voters will make popcorn and cheer. Now stand still because I’m going to beat you like a rented mule.”
Schumer: “You’re not following the script.”
Pelosi: “Can’t we do this in private?”
Trump: (To the press) “Write this down: I fear nothing. Chaos is my thing. I like firing people. I enjoy conflict. I like building stuff. I built tons of shit in New York when you need six lawyers and a permit just to make a cup of coffee. I turned Manhattan into my personal version of SimCity. This is fun. I’m getting an erection just thinking about shutting down every stinking office from the Pentagon’s janitors to the NOAA (whatever the hell NOAA means). I like being in the headlines and my people want a damn wall. Go ahead and spin that statement on CNN anyway you like.”
PredictIt: “RUUUUUUUN!”
Curmudgeon: “Shit, I missed a fast selloff. Dammit!”
So there you have it. I missed a one hour window where I could’ve cleaned up. The market still exists but it’s dead right now. Until something changes I’m sitting this one out. Maybe the press will drum up a witch hunt or Trump will pussy out but barring more shenanigans I missed my chance. Thanks for tuning into CNN; Curmudgeon News Network.
One of your best. “…now Stormy Daniels now owes me money” made me spit up my coffee. Pray continue.
Thanks.
It’s super epic. You have to start a trump Saga.
Then maybe you could have the squirrels meet him or something.
Lesbian squirrels and Abba vs. Trump
If Abba and Trump harness their powers and work together it would make Sauron seem weak by comparison!
I am so posting this to Baen’s Bar
Thanks! I feel temporarily redeemed from my delayed squirrels.
Predict-It: Deal by 21st?? No, extension to after Jan 6th and Trump will say OK, but with 2 strikes but not a 3rd. No grinch wants to lay off folks for Christmas; let them wait until the Christmas bills start coming in. And no back pay for no work please.
I’m staying out of the Dec 24th market. It’s too overpriced and lacks the right kind of volatility. I suspect there won’t be a shutdown before Christmas. Beyond that I have no solid prognostication.
The reason there will be no immediate shutdown is that Trump took the “call and response” (and eventually fold) game and shredded the well worn script. He fried Pelosi and Schumer in front of the media like a child blasting ants with a magnifying glass. “My people want a wall and I’ll personally stand in front of the cameras and say ‘I did this to get a wall’ if a shutdown happens.” Ouch! It’s like ripping one in church and then saying “Yeah, that was me, I ate beans last night and they were awesome”. There’s no way to play blame games and veiled threats with a man who’ll rip one in church.
It was masterfully done. Sometimes Trump blusters or makes a high opening bid expecting compromise for less but when he finally says ‘this is it’ he has already decided what he’s willing to do and he’s made sure everyone knows it. His decision was already made and Pelosi, who is pretty much never not bluffing, was out of maneuvering space. She seemed surprisingly out of her league. I might play poker against Pelosi but if Trump sat at the table I’d clear out!
There won’t be a shutdown until the swamp things shake off the blow. As for January; who knows. Maybe they’ll be ready to touch the hot stove again and see if it still burns? Or maybe they’ll just wait it out. Trump has only one term (or two) but Pelosi won’t leave office until she’s dead. She’ll keep trying to make the US into California (which has been a successful gambit for her) until they’re speaking Spanish in Omaha… and she’s pretty close to getting there anyway.
Thanks for falling back ONTO the political satire wagon. I had to read this one out loud to SWMBO this morning due all the involuntary laughing (que the standard spousal eye roll). One of your best, and closer to reality than many would like to think. Trump is like Thanos (minus the soul gem) … -> He is using weaponized chaos to restore a measure of communal order in political processes.
Thanks.