The Press’ Definition Of A “Risky Experiment”

I can’t help but ramble about media bias.  My heartburn is caused by reporting about government debt so please allow me four bullet points to clarify my Curmudgeonly position.

  1. I think government debt is a bad thing which will bite us on the ass.
  2. Some folks agree with me.  Among those that don’t, some folks might accept my opinion as reasonable.  Thinking debt is a bad thing does not inherently relegate one to the status of clueless troglodyte.
  3. An unbiased media (or even a shadow of one) would occasionally say something good about government fiscal responsibility.
  4. If a government acted in a fiscally responsible manner (not America of course, we’re running on hope, change, and magic bunnies)…but if any government anywhere actually stayed in the black, the press would be remiss if they didn’t report it…fairly.

I’m not saying I hold a popular opinion.  Politicians of both parties have spent like drunken sailors most of my life.  This is not a fluke.  As much as most politicians act like absurd alien hybrid monsters hatched in a botched lab experiment they were indeed elected.  The clueless morons voting citizens and the undead in Chicago got basically what they wanted good and hard.  Clearly the “government should live within our means” argument isn’t popular but even unpopular opinions should be reported on their merits and flaws.

One way to examine whether debt is bad or smiling happy puppy vote for us good is to look at what other nations have done and what has happened to them.  Luckily (?) there are countless examples of debt hammering a nation.  For example; Europe.  I believe Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain had some recent financial kerfluffles.  So did Iceland.  I haven’t checked the news today but last month Paris was afire with riots.  Note to France; when tinkering with retirement age causes rampages in your capital city I think debt can be an issue…and your people are in denial.  In addition to Europe there are the recent histories of Venezuela, Argentina, Brazil, Zimbabwe, and my brother’s uncle who lost his truck in a poker game.  I’ve got a handle on “lots ‘a debt” examples.

What about governments that put on the brakes and stopped spending like amassing debt is an Olympic event?  Recently Britain has started leaning toward reducing government size.  How interesting!  I wanted to know more…and this is where I made a mistake…I read a newspaper expecting to find “news”.  My naiveté knows no bounds.  The limp, thin, uninspiring pamphlet that passes for a newspaper had an article about Britain and I feel dirty and used now that I’ve read it.

It was a reasoned analysis of the pros and cons of their new comprehensive strategy.  I’m just joking.  Of course it wasn’t!  How can I forget that “journalists” haven’t just drank the “more government is always better” kool-aid, they’ve freebased it.

Instead of learning about Britain’s actual ideas I got several paragraphs moaning that Britain was embarking on a “risky experiment”.  How odd…I thought carrying massive debt loads was a “risky experiment”.  The article had endless handwringing that Britain proposed actions would cause tides to reverse, inflation, deflation, stagflation, war, famine, pestilence, misery, plague, and a very nasty rash you won’t want to mention in public.  There wasn’t a positive word in the entire article and they made sure to point out that reducing debt and government size was a risky, unproven, never before tried, dangerous, gamble.  We’re at war in two nations and Britain tinkering with the size of their postal service is supposed to rock our world?

I chalked it up to media bias and used the newspaper to wipe an oil dipstick.  (Old media still has some advantages over web sites.)  Later I decided to write about it but couldn’t find a link on the newspaper’s website.

Ever the Adaptive one, I tried a Google search.  I found many references to Britain’s new direction.  Damned near everything mentioned how Britain’s actions were bad, evil, carcinogenic, and a leading cause of hair loss.

Nothing positive about a major nation moving to curb it’s unsustainable spending.  Gentlemen of the press, I’ve seen you say good things about Yasser Arafat, Phil Spector, disco, Posh Spice, and the abomination they call non-dairy creamer.  Surely you can say something good about a government…any government…limping toward fiscal responsibility.  “Journalists” that can’t, need to step outside and breathe the air.  Reality is scary at first but I think they would find it refreshing.

Sincerely, A.C.

P.S. One delightful exception to press unanimity was a delightful article called; Will Someone Please Shut Krugman Up of course this originated in the UK and not in our sainted halls of unbiased journalism.

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Falling Short Of Lofty Goals

I went to the woods because I wished to live deliberately, to front only the essential facts of life, and see if I could not learn what it had to teach, and not, when I came to die, discover that I had not lived.

Once, when I was young and impressionable, I read those words.  Thoreau, that turnip eating proto-hippie, poisoned my mind with them.  I read them like they were antidote to a undefined disease and I never was the same again.  He’s one of many authors who’ve put a great deal of effort into making you perceive life at a deeper level than the glittery plastic horseshit sold at the mall.  The damnable lot of them will make you pine for unspoiled vistas and rocky crags amid a society bent on sticking us in front of computers perched in fabric boxes.

Don't ever take advice from men with sideburns.

Thoreau got off on poetic beauty.  Even though he got the ball rolling I’ve always been more of a meat and potatoes anti-idealist.  I can’t get behind any philosophy that doesn’t condone beer and profanity or might disrespect my motorcycle.  Nor am I about to sit in a cabin and pen missives about sitting on a pumpkin.  My gig is self reliance and freedom.  In moderation.

Moderation is key.  Unlike Thoreau or any of a number of wild eyed Utopians, I have a day job.  I pay taxes, grouse at traffic, get junk mail, and complain about the neighbors.  Thoreau was a hermitage of one.  I’m neither that dedicated nor that inflexible.

This causes a balancing act.  Sometimes I balance well.  Other times I go ass over teakettle in a comedy of errors.  Recently I was convinced I’d gone down in flames only to realize I’d done ok.  Case in point; winter heat.

I live where winters are chilly.  Actually it’s so damned cold that it passes “chilly” on the way down and doesn’t return to that level until you’ve lost hope.  I like it.  Everyone in such a climate has a furnace of some sort.  They pay cash, check, or credit for the energy to heat their home and it ‘aint cheap.  Propane deliveries, natural gas pipelines, big ass power grids, whatever…energy makes heat and energy is purchased in units of little green slips of paper called dollars.  Thoreau, if he were alive, would huddle around a smoldering pinecone and write a poem about his iced up solar panel.  For years, I just cut a check like everyone else and bitched about prices like everyone else.

Eventually I walked the walk and got a woodstove. I like wood stoves.  One doesn’t bask in the glow of an LP furnace with the satisfaction provided by the smallest wood fire.

A fellow with a chainsaw and manly attitude can stack enough wood to keep the house toasty warm.  Provided he works like a dog.  So I set forth this spring amassing firewood and made decent progress.  I was pleased.  Alas, I’ve got that darned day job and wound up shipped to and fro.  I don’t care what level of a bad ass survivalist nutcase you are, no human can stack a cord of firewood and still make the flight to Phoenix the same day.  Some days you’re the dog and some days you’re the hydrant and the boss calls the shots.  Cue the balancing act.

In cold climates it is wise to amass a considerable stockpile of wood to assure sufficient winter heat.

Now it’s some months later and the tinge of winter is in the air.  The die is cast.  I have a little less firewood than I think we’ll need.  Amish families, more experienced homesteaders, and backwoods bubbas all around me are surrounded by mountainous heaps of firewood and my little stack seems weak and inadequate by comparison.  My rough guess is I’ve got 80-90% of what I’ll need to make an “average” winter.  I feel like I failed.

I'm screwed,

Then, as I was drowning my concern with a couple of good microbrews I had an epiphany.  Not a deep one mind you, but one good enough to make the pricey beer worthwhile.  I have a lot less wood than I wanted but I have a hell of a lot more than none.  If, and this will be determined by the weather, I run out of firewood…I’ll buy fuel for my furnace just like the other 99% of the population have been doing all damned winter.  Nor will I need to buy a whole winter’s worth; just enough to cover the last few weeks of bluster.  My woodpile, incomplete as it is, represents an asset.  How many working stiffs cruise into winter with cash stockpiled to pay for the whole winter’s heat?  I know that one from experience…the answer is none.  So I figure I’m 80-90% ahead of the game if I compare myself to Bob in Marketing instead of Grizzly Adams.

Why am I writing this?  Probably I’m just a narcissistic asshole who’s drinking beer and looking at a woodpile.  But I’m also trying to toss a life preserver out there for those folks who are leaning toward self reliance but are stymied by the killer investment in time and dedication.  You can’t go from zero to hydroponic tomatoes in January in one shot.  There’s a lot of give and take along the way.  Don’t let some trust funder on the cover of Mother Earth News dissuade you.  Do what you can and don’t fret if you don’t quite go all the way.  Self-reliance is as much incremental gains as the big breakthrough folks imagine and it’s not so much as something you attain as it’s something you aspire to.

Well that’s enough cogitation.  You may all go back to surfing now.  Thanks for listening.

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Pure Concentrated Evil…In A Fun Way

Forty five seconds into this 52 second video you’ll see the most magnificently smug smirk ever captured on film.

Hat tip to Barking Moonbat Early Warning System.  Since there’s so many damn barking moonbats flitting around the last few years I’ve added them to my blogroll…just to be sure.

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The Unstoppable: Brigadier Dennis Rendell

The man in the center of this photo has balls of steel and absolutely no fear.

The man at the center of this photo is an escaped prisoner of war on the run in Italy in 1943.  The men on the left and right are clueless German soldiers.  Let that sink in for a minute.

Brigadier Dennis Rendell’s story is where awesome meets fearless.  Surely one of the ballsiest men to have walked the face of the earth, he not only gets on my list of “The Unstoppable” but he does it with style.

He recently died at 89 and his obituary at Barking Moonbat Early Warning System is well worth the read.

Posted in The Unstoppable | 11 Comments

What We’ve Got Here Is (NOT) A Failure To Communicate

Following the 2010 elections I’ve been enjoying post-election hand wringing on the left. I’m sure they enjoyed hand wringing on the right in 2008.  The universe is filled with balance.

However, there’s nothing mysterious about 2010 any more than 2008 was a mystery.  To claim you don’t understand why the voters acted as they did is to willingly choose misdirection.  Apparently that’s a common desire because left biased post-election explanations often coalesce around “we didn’t communicate well enough”.  Here’s an unremarkable example from USA Today:

…the Obama administration succumbed to an enduring Democratic blunder: talking over the heads of the American people.

…Democratic members of Congress swamped by the great tidal wave of Nov. 2 might be tempted to console themselves with the ironic mantra that “no good deed goes unpunished,” but a good deed needs to be identified as such in the mind of the person on whom it is being conferred.

So there you have the received wisdom of the press.  Us clueless knuckleheads in flyover country didn’t understand the the “good deeds” which Democrats had “conferred” on us.  It was a failure to communicate.  Bad advice!

Nobody has ever gone broke underestimating the Press’ ability to miss the obvious when it suits them, so I’ll spell it out:  The successful challengers in 2010, just like Obama in 2008, won because the politicians formerly in power pissed the people off.  That’s all there is to it.  The tone of voice used while beating us over the head with a two by four wasn’t really the problem.  As a public service I’m asking elected officials from both parties to have my newest Curmudgeonly Gem of Insight tattooed on their ass:

It is not the message.  It is what you do.

What did the Democrats do?  Well I could write a book but it would be a boring one we’ve all just lived through (and it’s not over yet).  So I’ll pick a nice clear example among many.  On Christmas Eve in 2009 Congress finally pulled the trigger and had their health care vote. Reasonable people can agree to disagree about Government controlled health care but nobody can claim that it was a reflection of the true will of the American people.  I’m absolutely sure of it and I’ve got proof.  My proof?  A vote on Christmas Eve.

The last time the Senate held a roll call on Christmas Eve was in 1895.  (They lifted a ban on former Confederate soldiers serving in the Post-Civil war U.S. military.)  What was the reason for the recent historic, first in 114 years, life or death, gotta’ happen now on Christmas Eve vote?  World War I?  World War II?  The Wall Street Crash of 1929?  Nope.  It was a health care vote during a brief window of time when the Democrats had a solid majority.

There’s no bullshitting the people.  Congress pulled out all the stops to do something they couldn’t normally do.  You shouldn’t do what can only be accomplished by dirty politics.  Which leads to my second Curmudgeonly Gem Of Insight for today:

If you shouldn’t do it; don’t.

A mere 321 calendar days later the Democrats got a world class electoral ass kicking.

To be clear I’m not singling out Democrats.  It’s only fair that I hammer the Republicans so here goes with a nice bedtime story from Wikipedia:

On March 21, [2005] Congress passed a bill, S.686, that allowed Schiavo’s case to be moved into a federal court. The controversial law is colloquially known as the Palm Sunday Compromise. It passed the Senate on Sunday afternoon unanimously, 3-0, with 97 of 100 Senators not present. Meanwhile, in the House of Representatives, deliberation ran from 9pm EST to just past midnight during an unusual Sunday session. The bill was passed 203-58 (156 Republicans and 47 Democrats in favor, 5 Republicans and 53 Democrats against), with 174 Representatives (74 Republicans and 100 Democrats) not present on the floor at the time of the vote at 12:41 a.m. EST. President Bush returned from vacation in Crawford, Texas to sign the bill into law at 1:11 that morning. (Emphasis added)

Did you get that?  A Senate vote of 3.  On a Sunday.  (I applaud the other 97 Senators for  behaving like civilized human beings and not running amok with gavels.)  This was followed by an “unusual” House vote at 12:41 am.  The president flew in from vacation to sign a bill at 1:11 am on a Monday morning.

Like Government controlled health care, the Terry Schiavo case can cause reasonable people to reasonably disagree.  However, three yo-yo’s in a room does not a Senate debate make.  (The Senate should never vote with fewer people than I can fit in a fishing boat!) A House vote at 12:41 am is shady at best.  And I’m a firm believer that the president should never sign anything at 1:00 am in the morning unless there’s a mushroom cloud over somewhere all Americans can immediately locate on a map.

It was dirty politics.  It was wrong.  Impassioned people may debate that it was a good thing but the deliberative bodies of our Nation should never ever be cooking the books after midnight on a weekend just for one parties pet cause.  It was one of many little things that paved the way for Obama to hammer McCain like a bent nail in 2008.  It is also one of the things that has the Tea Party crowd ready to drop the guillotine on the new Republicans that just got elected.

Why am I saying this?  Because I live here.  This is my goddamned Nation.  This is where I park my car.  It’s where I’m raising my child.  It’s where I keep all my stuff.  I love America and I want it to continue to thrive as the beacon of freedom and prosperity it was meant to be.  That means I want good governance.  I do not want Republican hegemony any more than I want Al Gore to regulate my lightbulbs.  I want two (or more) intelligent parties in constant competition trying to govern as well as possible.  (I also want a pony.)

When either party starts voting on something at midnight it’s bad news.  When they do something on a weekend and only after the press cycle will bury the story it’s dishonest.  When they tinker with voting counts, Gerrymander, collude and scheme my Nation takes it in the shorts.  I’m not cool with that.  The Republicans have a brief period of time to demonstrate they can actually govern.  The Democrats just got a solid hammering for demonstrating their failure in that respect.

Americans need at least two parties in competition to be the best.  Right now neither party is doing their best to govern.  We can and have dumped one or more parties forever.  Americans are adaptive.  Don’t fuck with us or you’ll wind up a footnote in a history text.  Our two party system started with Federalists versus Republicans.  Seen a Federalist lately?  (Perhaps they’re in disguise as Tea Partiers?)  Then it was Democrats versus Whigs.  Seen a Whig lately?  When all hell broke loose around slavery Republicans took center stage again.  (Lincoln…might have heard of him?)  Democrats and Republicans are what’s left among several parties that have dried up and faded away.  They’re both looking tired and disreputable.  Both would be well advised to straighten up and fly right.

Just as I don’t pine for a Studebaker when I’m driving my Honda, I don’t pine for a Whig or Bull Moose when I’m reading the morning news.  If my Honda craps out I’ll shift to a Ford or a Toyota.  If neither the Democrats nor the Republicans can steer thought the debt surrounding Baby Boomer’s retirement, they’ll be toast.  Given their collective lack of restraint over the last several decades, we wont miss them.

Posted in Curmudgeonly Gems of Insight, Harangue-a-bang-bang! | 1 Comment

Gone Huntin’

“Ah, sir, you dwellers in the city cannot enter into the feelings of the hunter.”

That’s the quote that popped into my head this morning while I was out hunting.  Curmudgeons hunt.

I had to put it front and center because it’s so delicious.  Anyone who can tell me the source (in comments) gets a Curmudgeonly gold star.

I have a great deal to say on the subject of hunting but I’ll defer it to a later date.  A pleasant morning filled with nature’s beauty does not motivate one to stay inside hammering text into a computer.

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The Boss Wants You Out Of Town: Pack Your Bags

Suppose you’re a political figure who came darned close to winning the party nomination for presidential candidate in 2008.

You cannot defeat me! Never never never....

Suppose the guy who narrowly won wanted to keep you on a tight leash and in plain sight.  If he doesn’t you’ll spend the next four years plotting his political demise. Congratulations, you’re the Secretary of State!  It is now your job to agree with everything the president says.  Smile.  Go to lots of meetings.  Never dis the boss.  Suck it up loser.

I keep Hillary under control...with the power of my focused smug ray.

Suppose you’re so polarizing and hated in certain parts of redneck flyover country that people reach for pitchforks and torches at the mention of your name.

We're going to telegraph our representative. President Hoover has just gone too far with the balderdashery and it's affecting morale at the annual turnip festival.

Suppose you’re the president and you’ve got this albatross around your neck just as citizens go to the polls to give your party a historical “shellacking”.

Momma said there would be days lke this.

What would you do with a liability like that at such a crucial time?  I suppose a tinfoil hat theorist might suggest the president look a the globe and pick the farthest point on planet earth from anywhere newsworthy at all.  And so it came to be that Hillary spent election day in Tonga.

When a person is placed in exile, frustration can affect their moods. In certain extreme situations steam actually vents from the afflicted person's ears.

Now for the funny part.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton yesterday congratulated the island kingdom of Tonga on 40 years of independence. The only problem is that Tonga never really lost its independence.

I’m sure Hillary would have known better if she’d been paying attention.  Although I’m not a fan of Hillary I’ll admit she’s usually highly professional.  I wonder what was distracting her from her important mission to Tonga on November, 11th?

Note: The volcano really was in Tonga…actually near it…the link says (and I’m not making this up) ‘No Living Thing Left’ as Tonga Volcano Erupts. Sadly it didn’t coincide with Hillary’s arrival for a more perfect punchline.

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Congratulations Citizens!

Something amazing happened yesterday. Something so sublime, so beautiful, so completely infused with import that it should take your breath away. Do not let that astounding event go unnoticed.

A Republican sweep? Not a chance! That will be soon forgotten. The amazing miracle we just witnessed is a nationwide series of hotly contested elections. They were executed successfully among peacefully cooperating citizens. Their decisions will be final. The most powerful nation on planet earth shifted it’s government entirely because citizens voted. Nanci Pelosi didn’t hole up in a bunker fondling her majority speaker’s gavel. The Nation’s President and Commander In Chief had a sleepless night and the next morning got in front of us all and said “Yes, indeed, I’ve been shellacked”.  People as different as Rand Paul and once and future Governor Jerry “Moonbeam” Brown stepped into power. Incumbents who lost stepped aside.

This, like the rising of the morning sun, is a miracle. Enjoy it.

Any free society is always at risk of collapse. Dependence and weakness can erode self reliance and strength. Debt can and has incrementally tightened the noose. There is never a time when free citizens are not either guarding their freedoms or slowly losing them. A people can always devolve from citizens to subjects. It has happened before and it will happen again. To some extent that insidious process has taken root even here. Fortunately it hasn’t gone too far yet. Nothing is written in stone. The future is entirely up for grabs. Nobody on earth truly knew the election results before the ballots were counted.

We are still a republic of free, self-determining, citizens who can and do send politicians to Washington and/or kick them to the curb at our will. Elections matter. We, the people, just proved it.

When some unimportant yahoo in flyover country can drive a rusty Subaru to the polls and stand in a little box deciding who shall be in power a thousand miles away simply because he’s a citizen…that is a powerful event. We can vote for morons or great leaders. We can make informed deliberations or vote for the candidate with the hottest wife. Either way people who’ve spent their whole life aggregating power can do nothing but accept whatever we and a plurality of our peers decide.

Win or lose, every time you vote in a free election you have witnessed a miracle. Congratulations citizens.

Posted in Libertarian Outpost, We Are Not Alone | Leave a comment

Math Is Hard

I have a background (and interest) in statistics and econometrics.  I know what you’re thinking but it’s not contagious so relax.  No need to stampede for the doors or disinfect your computer.  Imagined visions of sweaty pallid socially awkward losers dithering away with calculators and hunched over charts is terrifying but I won’t go far down the rabbit hole.

Homer Simpson, pictured above, demonstrates that not all people who are skilled in math are underfed wimps. We applaud Mr. Simpson for expanding the realm of mathematics to the "drunken lout" sector of the economy..

Like it or not, math is the tool of choice if you’re going to talk about little slips of green paper folks have come to associate with wealth.  More to the point, you can’t look at proposed new taxes or regulations and say “it’ll be just like now except…”.  It won’t.  Taxes and other effects are anticipated far upstream in time and you can easily wind up with a different future which simply doesn’t have what we take for granted in our current conditions.  It’s not easy to explain but some things will simply not exist (or exist less) because incentives/constraints like taxes (and other things) change their creation.  Neither the government nor anyone else can take what hasn’t been produced…no matter how hard they try.

Alas it’s not a simple concept and it makes me sound like a pinhead when I try to discuss it.  (I usually sound like a bunker dwelling paranoid lunatic too but I’m ok with that, really.)

Recently I stumbled across a neat little explanation of the Deadweight Loss caused by taxes.  If I’d tried to explain it I’d have gone on for hours and created a crater in the reader’s brain.  This guy wisely wrote all you need to know in 170 words.  Such a nice clean approachable explanation deserves a medal.  All I can do is shamelessly link and say…”yeah that’s what I’ve been trying to say.”

Imagine that you want to go to New York on a trip.  You value the trip at $50 and a bus ticket costs $40.  Do you take the trip?

A. Yes.  The value ($50) of the trip exceeds the cost of the ticket ($40) so you travel to New York.

How much consumer surplus (net value) do you get from the trip?

A. $10=$50-$40.

The government taxes bus tickets which raises the price of a bus ticket to $60.  Do you take the trip?

A. No. The value of the trip is now less than the price of the ticket.

What happened to the $10 consumer surplus which you used to get when there was no tax?

A. It’s gone since no trip takes place.

Did the government get any tax revenue from you?

A. No.

Conclusion: Deadweight loss is the value of the trips (trades) which do not happen because of the tax.

(Emphasis added by your’s truly.)

There’s more at Marginal Revolution. I encourage you to check it out.

Posted in For Your Education | Leave a comment

The Tyranny Of Hanging Chads

I was in my bunker living room last night discussing this year’s craptacular electioneering with some random fool Dr. Mingo when he made an excellent prognostication.

The 2010 election cycle will have no fewer than three races which “go into overtime”.

Dr. Mingo is correct.  Even the number seems about right.

Dr. Mingo and his staff statistician (seen behind him) agree that the number of the counting shall be three.

I concur that at least three national races will go into recounts.  This will include the usual ugly horseshit where chicken entrails and voodoo ritual will be used to determine “voter intent” on boxes of missing ballots discovered in the trunk of a parked Lincoln abandoned in Chicago.  They’ll be incorrectly translated into Swahili and signed by minor homeless illegal aliens without ID who were trucked across state lines by ACORN.

Both Dr. Mingo and myself note that each time the same ballots are counted, supporters of the Evil Party gain votes over the tally recorded for the Stupid Party.  I loathe biased recounts.  Winning, even in elections, is not everything.  Tinkering with rules to make a loss into a win is…here’s a word rarely used these days…wrong.

Nor do I care about a voter’s “intent “.  What a person put on a ballot is what they put on the ballot.  If you checked the box for Stalin and really wanted Pol Pot…tough shit.  Nor do I care if you disenfranchised yourself.  If you didn’t go to the polls, lack the ability to prove who you are, can’t spell your own name, peed on the ballot, or inexplicably stabbed yourself with a pencil while trying to vote; you lost out.  You blew it.  Come back in the next election and try again.  This is important…I don’t care about your intent; I care about what you actually did.

Recent biased recounts erode essential faith in our system of governance.  Further, the more biased the recount the greater the chances for deception, misdirection, vice, obnoxiousness, and asshattery.

Math is hard.

Posted in Harangue-a-bang-bang! | Leave a comment