PredictIt Update

[Note: This post was written a couple weeks ago. I didn’t post it at the time because I felt we’d all had too much politics. I’m posting it now because we’ve briefly trailed off a local peak in the endless Himalayas of political madness. Whether I time it right or there’s an another manufactured panic in a few hours remains to be seen. Regardless, I want to go “on record” with my choices and assumptions. Wrong or right, I’m not going to move goalposts after the fact. I refuse to be like the people who said “temporary measures to lower the curve” six months ago and are now fishing for “nobody does a damn thing until we’re all vaccinated and nobody dies of any cause ever”. They did wrong and, carried on in the madness of crowds, haven’t the humility or introspection to rectify their misguided momentum. Forgive the politics and feel free to skip this post if you wish. I won’t mind.]

[Background: I have a pittance in a prediction market. Why? Because the best way to know the truth is to get out the damn yardstick and measure. If I think such and such will happen I ought to go on record and/or put money down or it’s just bullshit poser talk. If I put money down and lose; I know it was bullshit poser talk. That said, I don’t gamble (much) with money. These are tiny amounts which only serve to detect confirmation bias and such.]

So, here’s the truth:

Bet against Biden: Lose:

I put bet on “Joe Biden WILL NOT be the Dem nominee”. I did this waaaaaay back when we were free citizens and COVID was merely a sparkle in a mad scientist’s eye (or the delicious added ingredient to someone’s bat soup). I knew Biden’s odds were good but I thought someone would beat him in a fair competition.

I thought of bailing out when they sent Bernie packing. Bernie was the only candidate people were rooting for instead of as a foil to Orange Man Bad. This was just before COVID hit

I should have bailed, but life intervened. My dog was ill and nothing on-line mattered one damn bit. I had bigger concerns in life. No regrets. Never let money or politics overshadow what’s important. Nor do I get to retroactively say “I meant to do that”. I didn’t take action and that’s my choice. I sat on the bet. After that key moment I held on for months because I just couldn’t believe a man who won’t leave his basement was a serious contender.

I was wrong. Biden was confirmed at a lackluster DNC convention that resembled a Zoom meeting and the value of my shares went to $0. Total loss!

I lost $7.08 on 9 shares for my mistake. That pencils out to buying at about $0.78 and riding it down to nothing.

Bet on Trump: Win:

I put money down on “Donald Trump WILL be the Rep nominee”. I put that bet down waaaaaaay back when the opposition party was working up the nerve to impeach him over Christmas. Removal from office seemed unlikely, and impeaching a sitting president on grounds that you hate him has a tendency to backfire. Ask Bill Clinton about it.

History has some pointers on this too. Any incumbent unhampered by the “only two elections per person” rule is almost certainly going to be his party’s nominee. The only way Trump would fail to get the nomination would be if he got hit with a meteor or Never-Trumpers were actual Republicans with spines of steel.

Also, anyone who ran against Trump in the primaries would get shredded. Trump isn’t too scared to leave his basement, he loves campaigning, and he’s been a fairly decent president (many would disagree with that last clause but then again they weren’t the core that matters in a primary). Given he’s healthy and would crush any Republican party challenger like Gozdilla stepping on a newt, what’s more to ponder?

Unless you’re currently a college student majoring in Indoctrination Studies or Trump’s health looks sketchy, this is an easy bet. I’m not the only guy that figured it out. It was less risky and therefore offered a lower payoff. I can’t remember how much I paid per share but it settled at $1 (a.k.a. “yes, that thing happened”). After PredictIt’s fees, I cleared $2.45 gains on 7 shares. That pencils out to $0.35 PROFIT per a share so I probably bought in at a little under $0.65 and rode it to a buck.

Still pondering apparent immortality: Unresolved:

It’s essentially a deadpool to bet on who will leave the Supreme Court next but it’s not my fault. They all freebase power. Otherwise sane people can’t work up the nerve to step away. The poor bastards work until they die; as if cursed. They could retire you know!

I’m holding 20 shares of RUTH BADER GINSBERG as the next one to leave the Supreme Court. For her it’s a death pool. She could leave, voluntarily and still alive, head held high, walking out the door like a boss… but she won’t. Also, the press tends to report bullshit: “Bader is bench pressing Volkwagens but we can’t show a recent photo of her standing up”. We won’t know the situation until there’s a body. It reminds me of reporting about Kim Jung-Un and Fidel Castro. They’re fit and healthy until they were dead three days ago.

It’s a low profit bet because betting against the health of a very frail old woman is hardly going against logic. That said, I salute her. RGB is no ordinary human. She’s damn near immortal. She’s been frail, old, and ill forever but keeps on keepin on. I’m impressed.

I don’t regret the bet but it hasn’t played out well yet. She’s tied up two pizzas worth of money for almost 2 years now. My shares are worth slightly more now than they were when I bought them, but not a lot. I haven’t changed my mind on the fundamentals of the bet, nobody looks to retire soon, and Bader intends to live forever. So we sit here and wait.

Also, I want to repeat… there’s no reason whatsoever SCOTUS justices have to work until they die; it’s cruel but self inflicted. The Faustian gamble they make for power scares the hell out of a guy like me. I’m happy staying away from the levers of control.

Do I have other bets? Yes. I’ll report when, if the time comes. However, none will make me rich or deplete my mortgage payment… small potatoes only! Life is risky enough without adding additional stress. This is bullshit detection only.