PredictIt Update: Part 1

[Background: I have a pittance in a prediction market. It’s my stand against insanity. Fools are induced to run around like maniacs (and the press loves it when they do) but that’s because they don’t really have skin in the game. Wagering cash on emotional feedback gets expensive. Thus, bets are a solution to whiny bitch syndrome. I also promised myself I’d blog my results. If I suck very bad (conceivably as bad as Nobel prizewinner Paul Krugman) I won’t hide behind denial. Perhaps I’ll learn from experience (unlike Paul Krugman). Incidentally, I might be right. In which case I’ll know I was right and not just blowing smoke up my ass.]

[Note: I wrote this about a month ago, just when Impeachment Part II: The Triggering was hitting theaters near you. I decided to postpone publication because everyone was losing their shit. I didn’t want to contribute to an environment of asshattery. I scheduled it for the future (which is now) in the hopes that everyone calmed the fuck down and the press stopped saying “this time we’ve got him”. So, was it another nothing-burger? Past Curmudgeon scheduled that way. Was he right?]

Ruth Bader Ginsberg: Holding steady but she’s clearly immortal.

I bet on Ginsberg being “the next justice of the Supreme Court … to create a vacancy on the Court by departing active service for any reason“. Like a Greek Tragedy, she’ll work until she dies. I find that disturbing. Then again I just Frodo away in Sauron’s world. I’ve never been tempted by power.

Like an undead cyborg vampire, Ginsberg is apparently immortal. I bought shares in November ($0.73) and more in February ($0.75). Right now it’s sitting at $0.74. No change!?!

Invariably, the press reports she’s fit. In fact, she’s bench pressing Geo Metros while training for MMA cage matches against the minions of darkness and/or inbred knuckle dragging flyover state residents. Also, they can’t show a recent photo because shut the hell up you unbelieving deplorable heretic. Like Popes, Autocrats, and Kings, Ginsberg will be  perfectly healthy until she was dead two weeks ago.

I’m not giving up on this bet. Humans are mortal and voting pro-choice doesn’t make her a God. (She’ll be astoundingly pissed if Orange Man Bad is in the seat when she checks out but I think that’s precisely the fate she created for herself.)

Regardless, I’m impressed. She’s taken a bigger beating than John Wik. An 86 year old woman, she’s survived colon cancer AND pancreatic cancer AND two or three other ones. Note: the press is trying to ignore things so much I can’t get a clear count on how many different cancers she had or has.

Here are the facts behind my bet, few that they may be: About a year ago she fractured three ribs. This led to the secret and unreported detection of “cancerous nodules in her lungs” (cancer #3?). There was a subsequent (also not reported to the press) “lung lobectomy”. (Which sounds painful and I sincerely wouldn’t wish on anyone) As with all things in 2019, the truth came out after the press tried to ignore it. In August we learned (after the fact of course) she’d had three weeks of radiation treatment on a tumor in her pancreas (cancer #1 resurgent or a new cancer #4?).

Nobody lives forever. Sooner or later the event will go down. The Press won’t be able to play Weekend at Bernies for more than a few days. I’m in awe of her resilience but I’m holding $0.74 shares waiting for them to resolve at $1 when the press reports she suddenly died a week ago.

Trump: The Energizer Bunny: Looking Good.

Russia, Russia, Russia, this time we’ve got him, the walls are closing in… blah blah blah. It’s all propaganda. I’d like to buy in for “Trumpslide” much like Reagan election #2. That’s how it feels to me. However, American elections are more corrupt by the hour and I’m not going to wade into the maelstrom of a mathematical blowout without a huge payback. There are simply too many ways to “accidentally” screw the pooch. That said, I’m cautiously expecting “win beyond the margin of cheat”.

I’m up 33% on “2020 winner will be Trump“. It’s at $0.40 now and I bought in at $0.30. I wish I’d bought more but don’t we always? I’m holding it.

I’m up 4% on “2020 winner will be Republican“. I’m holding it but I regret entering this market. Unless Trump is assassinated or strangled by Ruth Bader Ginsberg, Trump = Republican and it’s cheaper to bet on Trump directly. It’s hard to imagine Republicans winning without Trump. In fact, if a black swan event takes out Trump, the Republicans will find a way to step on their own dick. They can’t win without him… which is probably why the Republican party hates him so much. They like to lose with class; winning just feels odd to them.

I’m down 1% on “Trump wins popular vote in 2020“. It’s a cheaper buy than “2020 winner” and that makes sense because it’s more specific. Almost always the electoral college winner is also the popular winner; math is like that. Recent bullshit with Al Gore/Bush Jr. and Hidabeast/Orange Menace should be rare but they’re increasingly common. They’re really indications of a Republic trying to handle a split populace (and a populace that can’t differentiate Republic from Democracy).

It’s $0.24 right now and the payoff is $1. It’s one of the more reasonable “longshots”. The higher risk on the chance of a 316% profit is worth it. (By comparison my possible profit betting against Ginsberg’s immortality is 35%.)

Betting Against Trump? In the press? Who wouldn’t? A likely win for the Curmudgeon.

The next market is an easy call. I bet NO on “Donald Trump’s job approval rate on one or more days on or before December 31, 2019, shall be 55% or higher … blah, blah, blah … Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll“.

This one is baked in the cake. The free shit army is something like 47%. There’s no way any Republican, living, dead, imagined, fictional, or empowered by Excalibur and imbued with the Holy Spirit… can break 55% if they start with 47% of the population shrieking at them.

Also the press is all in on stupid. Trump just announced we’d killed a major terrorist and the press reported “Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, austere religious scholar at helm of Islamic State dies at 48.” What in the name of flaming radioactive frothing insanity would make anyone act that obtuse? I almost shit myself.

Then the press whined that a meme of giving the military attack dog involved a medal was “faked”. It was a goddamn joke you blithering nitwits! The Easter bunny isn’t real. Do we need an official announcement about that? “Rabbits don’t shit chocolate eggs… Trump lied!” What the fuck is wrong with these writhing sacks of cognitive dissonance?!?

There’s no way any R on this earth can break 55% when the press gives a hand job to anyone with a D after their name.

I bet against Trump breaking 55% and bought in at $0.85. Now it’s trading at $0.96 (this post is written during the second impeachment panic but published later). I should cash out now instead of waiting for the last $0.04 but I’m not sure. It’s a first world problem. Do I grab 13% profit because people just voted about the impeachment that will never happen, or hold 2 months for 18% maximum?

This is going long so I’ll split it into two posts. Stay tuned for my next post where I explain a bet I made that’s a big time fuck up.

A.C.