PredictIt Update

I like to examine how much I suck (or rule?) at prognostication. I’ve started to use PredictIt to detect if I’m for real or full of shit. This is the first update of 2019.

Win-shutdown: In December I made a minuscule (but good ROI%) on “will there be a shutdown”. I bid “NO” for a deadline of December 10th. (If the event resolves as a NO I’d get $1, if it resolves as YES I’d get $0. I can also buy in and out anytime before the resolution.)

There was no shutdown on December 10th. I win!

I bought 4 shares at “NO” at $0.62 and then a few weeks later I bought another 10 at “NO” for $0.72. I rode it all the way to $1. Profit wasn’t quite enough to buy a six pack.

After that I looked at the next “shutdown” market and stayed clear. Everyone went nuts and I couldn’t make head’s nor tails. Gotta know when to hold ’em and know when to fold ’em. Or in my case, I detected the complete absence of logic and predictability and stayed far away.

Lose-Trump Testify: I took a micro-bath (<$1) on “will Trump testify in 2018“. I bought 2 shares of “NO” but on December 18th it resolved to $0. I don’t recall seeing Trump swearing in at a court of law or a congressional setting but the arbitrator thinks it happened and I won’t disagree. Presumably there was some wiggle room involving maybe a written memo or something? I was bummed out because I felt like I called it right; I never saw Trump with his hand on a bible swearing in. But I’m sure “the ref” carefully defined things and made a call in accordance with the rules. (On a related note, when there’s an election and I don’t like the results, I refrain from running around the streets screaming and breaking things. That’s just how I roll.)

Win-Trump Jr. Charges: I had two shares of “NO” for “Will a federal charge against Donald Trump, Jr. be confirmed by year-end 2018?” Unsurprisingly, the market resolved to $1. I made more on this than I lost on the Trump testify market. Again, were talking such a small amount I can barely use my winnings to buy a couple postage stamps.

Win-Baby It’s Cold Outside: This next move was just as I’d planned but I bailed too soon. I bought some shares of “Will NASA find 2019’s global average temperature highest on record?” I bought “NO” at $0.52. (See a pattern here? I like to buy “NO”.) This one should be an easy steal deal because any record is by definition rare. Unfortunately, it’s not an unbiased event. I have doubts about NASA cooking the numbers on an aggregate planetary index.

I played this as a market about how people confuse “weather” and “planetary climate index”. I bought “NO” and planned to wait until it was cold and snowing in the northern hemisphere. Everyone who just burned their Whole Foods reusable shopping bag to stay warm in a blizzard would be thinking “NO” and I’d make bank. It was a very hot December so this was a gamble. When it turned cold, as it always does in January, I bailed out at $0.62 for a tiny but effortless profit.

Then the polar vortex killed every living being in Chicago and my backyard was so cold my nuts won’t thaw until March. Damn!

The price is now $0.71 for “NO”. Whoops! It’ll probably stay that profitable (for “NO”) until it’s August when everyone in the northern hemisphere is shocked to discover that summer is hot (maybe just before that I’ll buy some “YES”).

Oh well; I didn’t lose, I just missed the extra profit I could have squeezed from a huge storm.

Waiting But Confident-Ginsberg: I’m sitting on a handful of shares of “GINSBERG” for “Who will be the next justice to leave the Supreme Court?” I’m keeping those shares until resolution. They’re not for sale y’all!

I bought in at $0.73 after the nearly unkillable Mrs. Ginsberg broke three ribs. I wish I’d bought before the ribs but, as the Rolling Stones once said, you can’t always get what you want. Before, during, and after the rib event, the press was reporting on Mrs. Ginsberg like she was lifting weights in preparation for an MMA match.

A few weeks later Mrs. Ginsberg had “unexpected” cancer surgery. By “unexpected” I mean “totally expected but not reported to us peons”. The cancer was detected during the broken rib event. That means it was “expected” for every moment after that day. Nobody said jack squat for weeks. It’s almost like the crack investigative reporters in the press were too busy doing everything they could to not know about it. Of course, the press discussed her cancer surgery like it was an awesome way to spend an afternoon. In fact she was wrestling alligators and doing pull ups to the sound of crossfit training tapes.

After that, Ginsberg vanished. Last confirmed public sighting was around December 21st. Check your calendars folks, that’s seven and a half weeks without a single photo of her merely standing upright. There are text reports that she was mobile on February 4th but no photographic evidence to back it up. I’m suspicious of a press that says she’s chopping wood with an ax and climbing mountains but can’t dredge up a photo of a SCOTUS justice just standing. Oh yeah, there’s the fact that she hasn’t showed up at work (which is understandable, but not an indicator of good health.) She’s actually “voted” a few times and by “voted” I mean “someone somehow conferred her wishes”. How’d that happen? Was it through legitimate means like a notarized document or do they send an intern to do interpretive dance at the Oracle at Delphi? Given the press, how am I to know? More importantly how do you know?

Seriously, how do you know that Justice Ginsberg isn’t tits up in the flower garden? I’ve seen Trump’s Orange face and Pelosi sucking lemons at the SOTU speech. This is evidence that those two freaks are healthy. But Ginsberg never shows up to a republican President’s SOTU and (as I mentioned) seems to impossible to photograph. What’s a guy got to do? Setup trail cams in the Supreme Court Building? How does any American citizen know that Ginsberg, who’s a very important person, is still at the wheel?

Also, Ginsberg remains a ghost but the price is still only $0.75. WTF? How is that the correct risk analysis? Melania Trump was out of the spotlight a few weeks in 2018 and the press speculated all sorts of exciting things. Meanwhile, a Supreme Court Justice is MIA a month shy of her 86th birthday and there’s nothing to see here. Really? What’s she doing? Backpacking across Europe? Doing bong hits in Guam? Side gig as an Uber driver? It seems due diligence to show America a photo of our paid leadership standing and breathing at least once a week.

Sadly, there’s not a lot of profit to harvest at the ride from $0.75 to $1. At least I got a few shares. I reiterate my belief that the press will report she’s healthy and running marathons until she suddenly and unexpected died two weeks ago.

On a more personal note, I honor Mrs. Ginsberg’s resilience (which is incredible!). I sure as hell wont be working that hard when (if!) I reach that age. However, unless Nancy Pelosi can do a resurrection spell or Clarence Thomas is hit by a meteorite, Ruth Ginsberg is the next to go and that’s that. I’ll make a sawbuck when it happens. This is why I’m in a prediction market. Unicorns don’t exist but true believers do and I’m hoping to fleece the latter.

Uncertain but Trending Well-Vaginal Preference In Judges: I bought some shares of “YES” for “Will Trump’s next Supreme Court nominee be a woman?” A coin flip would be $0.50. I bought in at $0.52 and today it’s riding at $0.53. Honestly, that’s still basically coin flip numbers.

I don’t like the bet because in a fair world it wouldn’t matter. There’s no reason on God’s green earth that the quality of a judge should be based on whether they sit down or stand up while taking a piss. But bets are about what is, now what should be. We live in a time of madness. Replacing a female with a female will annoy the left (which identifies humans not based on the content of their character but on skin color and genitalia). Trump’s no dummy. He’ll try hard to pick someone that’ll force Nancy Pelosi to Vaginasplain to us how we should “believe all women” but burn a female Trump nominee at the stake. It is just too easy to put her on the horns of a dilemma. All he needs is one suitable female candidate. So I bought a few shares. It’s like making popcorn when a redneck says “hold my beer and watch this”.

Losing Ground-Recession: I bought some “YES” on “Trump 1st term recession?” because America’s economy (as with most nations) is a house of cards. I figured the roaring growth since 2016 can’t go on forever. Cycles happen. So far I’m waaaaaaay wrong. Trump’s economy is winning so hard I’ve lost a brutal $0.12 a share (that’s 12% of all possible value!).

I like having a nicely growing economy. This is a bet I’m delighted to lose.

That said, I’m holding it. I have until 2020 and a black swan could shit on us at any time. Side note, recession is two consecutive quarters with a negative annual growth rate. That means the shit has to hit the fan likely in 2019 just to give time for a followup bad quarter. Ah well, I’ve predicted 8 of the last 3 recessions. Maybe this is my own bias I’m detecting?