PredictIt Update

I haven’t been literally off grid but I’ve been pretty unconnected. This leads to strange moments of re-calibration as I reintegrate into the steaming heap of bullshit that’s modern “news”. So much has happened and so little has mattered:

First came the aborted, wasn’t going to happen, easy to call December 10th government shutdown. I bet NO and did well on that one (low money but high ROI).

The sequel, “Pissing Match Mark II”, was another matter. I couldn’t make heads nor tails of it.

Originally I leaned NO but didn’t buy in. Pelosi and Schumer tried to threaten the Trumpomatic (which is probably never a good idea). “Hey, lets go find the craziest motherfucker in DC and challenge him to a game of chicken”. Trump was like “This! Is! SPARTA!” and we all had a good laugh. I thought “it’s over, Dems know Trump’s willing to turn the dial to eleven so they’ll wisely fold.”

Then Congress went home to do nothing locally instead of doing nothing centrally. I was still thinking “not gonna’ happen” but by then the market was all over the place. I kept my beer money in my pocket.

Then, Trump was like “OK fine, I’ll pussy out on the wall”. I heard this while driving and about ran my truck into a bridge abutment. It seemed amazingly out of character. I didn’t see it coming. I thought for sure Trump wasn’t bluffing but he went (as Mrs. Thatcher would’ve said) “wobbly”.

Within the hour I had new PredictIt plans. Forget lame ass budget shenanigans and go large. Trump was destined to be a one term wonder and this was the moment that sealed the deal. “Welcome to the Carter / Bush Sr. club ya’ chickenshit!” No wall, no re-election. End of story.

Alas I was busy and didn’t have time to set up my laptop in a Starbucks to sell my meager shares of Orange Man and Stupid Party in the markets for “2020 Stupid Party Nominee” and “Which Party wins presidency in 2020” respectively.

I checked out for a few days and forgot all about it. Seemingly the Evil Party was busy overplaying its hand. Soon the situation had reversed and Trump had a spine again. I was totally baffled. It boils down to one of two options.

Option A is that Trump really was about to pansy out. Perhaps Melainia was stroking his nutsack so well he lost his usual almost supernatural sense of the zeitgeist. In a fit of dumbassery he ran an elephant over the thin ice of pissing off the 40% of the populace that supports him. (Wimping on the wall means he’s dead to them.) Then, at the last minute he drank three diet cokes, got his head in the game, and realized he’d made the wrong call. He subsequently backed away from his bad decision. Occam’s razor leans toward this solution set. I’ve noticed Trump is very good at recognizing he’s made a mistake and is willing to correct missteps with whiplash speed.

Option B is that Cheeto Jesus is the slickest psychological manipulation machine to walk the face of the earth. He told the Evil Party “I will fuck you up”. His supporters loved it. When the Evil Party was about to make a show without substance (a half assed pretend shutdown kabuki that wouldn’t give him the clearly demarcated battle lines he wanted) Trump showed a bit of weakness. “OK fine, I’ll kick the can on the wall… just don’t throw me into the brier patch”. The Evil party, being evil, smelled blood and overplayed their hand. Meanwhile, the Stupid party, stood around with their thumb up their ass. Seriously, what’s the point of those toadstools anyway? Then, just when NPR was about to ignore Trump and whine about sad polar bears on Christmas Eve, Trump swerved again. “Nope… it’s still Sparta. No wall means I’ll veto. Yippie Ki Yay Motherfuckers!”

I’m not sure option B is true but I’m not ruling it out either. It’s part of why I stayed the hell out of that market. Trump uses unpredictability as a tool. Also playing chicken with Trump is suicidal. If Trump really did go with option B, he’s playing his opponents like an instrument. He’s either crazy or brilliant. Probably both. I sussed out option B as slick political judo or I’m falling prey to confirmation bias. Probably both. Either way, I’m glad I stayed out of the market and have no predictions about the shutdown’s duration.

In other news, several things have happened that I didn’t expect. I wonder if this is why both parties wanted a shutdown. As a distraction?

The market, which has been on a tear since 2016, is getting flaky. Frankly the stock market is unlinked from true valuation and I can’t make much of it. A re-adjustment seems reasonable after a two year post-Obama skyrocket. I’m actually holding a bit on “Trump recession by 2020”. Regardless, the market took a huge shit, and everyone seemed totally cool with it. It barely ruffled the press’ feathers. What’s up with that? Were they fluffing the Dems pre-shutdown tailgate party or did I just miss the show? Then stocks roared back in the middle of a shutdown. Go figure. Regardless, I’ve no PredictIt position on this.

I had a PredictIt bet that blew up. I held NO that Trump would give special council testimony by 12/31/18. It seemed a safe bet. Everyone knows you never talk to the police. If Trump was dumb enough to walk into a perjury trap he’d have been hammered back when he was just a rich real estate developer. If there was real evidence we’d already have heard of it too. Yet the market resolved at $1 on YES.

It happened? I had no idea. Apparently the big orange idiot did the deed? Why? What kind of asshat will testify before a grand jury when half the population of DC has been going scorched earth on his ass for 2 years? It’s been “Russia, Russia, Russia” with less evidence than a flat earther’s wet dream about Area 51 and he was willing to play ball? Can this be the same guy I associated with Option B cleverness just a few paragraphs above?

Personally, I wouldn’t testify under oath that the sky was blue for those jackoffs. Someone would show up with a new definition of violet and I’d wind up arguing about wavelengths. Or they’d ask me what I’d eaten for breakfast on a leap year while Halley’s Comet was on the rise and I’d answer Cheerios when the real answer was Rice Krispies. I’d wind up in Federal pound me in the ass prison for not properly remembering a thing that’s not a crime. Fuck that noise! Regardless, I lost $0.96.

Oddly, NPR, which can’t take a shit without blaming Trump for the smell, didn’t mention Trump’s testimony? I would’ve expected 3-4 days of “the walls are closing in” and “this time we’ve got him”. Radio silence. What’s up with that? Perhaps I was otherwise occupied at the time.

Another market, my creepy actuarial dead pool bet on Mrs. Ginsberg leaving the Supreme court first has bounced all over while I’ve resolutely held a few shares of YES. My logic is simple it’s based on age and a grim fate. Some folks latch their talons into power and mainline the addictive nectar until they’re dead. Robert Byrd, Ted Kennedy, and the recently planted John McCain come to mind. Ginsberg is on that dark spiral. It seems a Faustian bargain to me but then again I’m not addicted to power. If going to a staff meeting in your mid-80’s isn’t hell then what the fuck is?

Mrs. Ginsberg, impresses me with her persistence, but she’s mortal. Personally I think she’s too invested in “preserving her legacy” and it’s a little sad. (Hint: there’s a fine line between “preserve my beautiful legacy” and “build a giant statue of myself”. There’s a reason Ozymandias is in my right margin. Read it.)

Ginsberg can’t “let go”. Faustian bargains are like that. But she’s not a spry 60 year old either.

In keeping with my crude assessment of her motivations and a press that’s to the left of Trotsky, I assume all reporting of Mrs. Ginsberg’s condition are of the Fidel Castro / Pope John Paul II model. The heroic superbeing in question is healthy and fit right up until the moment they were suddenly dead last week. Seriously, Cuban propaganda made it sound like Castro was bench pressing his weight in cigars when images showed a frail man shuffling about in sweatpants. He disappeared for long lengths of time; during which he was “in excellent health”. Finally someone reluctantly said “dude died last Tuesday”. (At least that’s how I remember it.) Incidentally, I mean nothing untoward putting the Pope in the same sentence as that shitweasel Castro. John Paul II seemed like a nice guy. I’m thinking more about the Holy See being as evasive as possible as the man aged.

Anyway I put a PredictIt bid YES on “Ginsberg retires first” shortly after she had a “minor” breaking of three ribs. Just for the record, if I break three ribs I’m going to piss and moan about it big time… not mutter something about “minor”. (Have I mentioned she’s already had two different kinds of cancer?)

I didn’t get a great price because everyone else lemminged on the news. Ginsberg recovered and the price dropped. (You gotta’ hand it to her, she’s harder to kill than John Wick.) My position went from Meh to Crap as the press reported she was doing the montage from Rocky movies.

I ignored the press. Why wouldn’t I?

A few weeks ago (when I wasn’t paying attention) my shares went from Crap to Golden and then back to Meh. I had no idea why.

A check of Google informed me Ginsberg suddenly announced she was already finished with a heretofore unreported treatment for cancer (a third independent unrelated form of cancer). It had been discovered during the “minor” broken ribs but not reported because apparently frail women in their 80’s totally thrive on lung surgery and DON’T LOOK BEHIND THE CURTAIN YOU DAMN DIRTY BLOGGER!

Anyway the market peaks when she’s having “minor” issues like broken ribs and cancer but takes a dump when the press subsequently reports she was wrestling grizzly bears that morning. I’d like to buy more shares but at this point the value may never go low enough to be a real bargain.

So that’s the PredictIt report. Wild gyrations in markets made of stampeding lemmings. I try to sift through “news” that’s really propaganda without falling prey to confirmation bias. Sometimes I win. Sometimes Trump inexplicably testifies when I’m not paying attention. Sometimes the water’s so damn muddy I stay on shore. Life’s just a game of bullshit detection.

A.C.

P.S. Incidentally, what’s up with Donald Trump Jr.? I bought NO on some lame market  that he’d be in the Denver SuperMax by New Years. (I’m paraphrasing.) It sounded like bullshit. Did the bullshit happen?