PredictIt

Some time ago I was getting pissed off with politics. (Ha ha ha… getting…  like it’s a new thing.)

Everything seems so predictable. Everyone plays their assigned part like friggin’ marionettes. Why? I find it inexplicable they’d subvert their own will like that. Some of the denser marionettes get violent in the streets and weep. To what ends? Some of the more accomplished puppetmasters make a good living sucking money and farming votes within the stirred emotions of the populace. A pox on them all.

Then it occurred to me; “How do I know this?”. It looks like a bunch of nincompoops having tantrums but maybe I’m just as biased and stupid? How am I to know if I’m really reading the winds? Perhaps I’m just freebasing the Dunning–Kruger effect like the rest of the sheep?

So I made an account on PredictIt and offhandedly dropped a ten spot on a few markets. PredictIt is a “prediction market”. The blurb says “PredictIt is run by Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, a not-for-profit university, for educational purposes”.

For non-nerds who don’t bathe in math, this means a betting pool where people wager on various political outcomes. You put real money (albeit tiny amounts) down and see what happens. There are many such markets. Some may be better. I decided not to go too far down the rabbit hole seeking the ideal and selected PredictIt more or less at random.

In theory, a market where people risk real money (their own money!) taps into the wisdom of crowds. There have been many examples of markets sussing the truth out of a mountain of bullshit toot sweet. Also, I’m happy with small numbers. If you risk $10 and make 20% profit you’re learning just as much as if you risk $5,000 and make a 20% profit.

Overall, I’m not so sure about PredictIt. It’s just a toy. I risked a ten spot. Hardly putting my neck out there. Also, it’s not a great market. The fees are too high to really make money unless you call big swings. (You pay 10% of profits and 5% at withdrawal. Shares have a max payout at $1 and max loss is the full buck on a share. You can buy all the shares you want but you’re limited to $850 in bets… which is real money to me! There are forums where people chatter but I don’t read them.)

My big complaint is the limited volatility. It’s easier to make money on bets when people stampede to and fro like lemmings. (Anyone recognize a populace that’s acting like that?)

But for all it’s faults it’s OK for what I wanted. I was just looking to self detect the stalking shadow of Dunning-Kruger. Also I’m trying to keep the stupid at bay and not pick up another “job”. Most of the markets bore me and I deliberately spent little time pondering details. I’m simply not steeped in the system enough to ponder the details of Angela Merkel’s daily activities or the number of Tweets the Orange Menace issues per day. (Yes, you can bet on “tweet count”. God only knows why you’d care, but it takes all types.)

That said, I dumped a few bucks on a few markets and subsequently ignored them. The Kavinaugh crapfest came and went. I meant to buy in on a few Kavinaugh markets but was busy. Otherwise I didn’t monitor it. Now I return and I’m up about 4%. No, 4% doesn’t mean I’m the Oracle at Delphi, but then again it’s 4% in just about 2 months. It’s not too shabby for paying little attention. I mildly wish I’d ponied up a bit more than $10 but such is the allure of gambling… which I intend to restrain.

If you’re disturbed by politics, or wish to understand just what the hell is going on, or want to “prove” you’re smarter than the average bear, try a bet. Put your money on the line (even a few pennies) and watch what happens. If you’re a dumbass and lose your shirt (or just a few pennies) it’ll teach humility. If you make good calls and profit (even just a few pennies) you’ll have the satisfaction of testing your theories. In a perfect world, the freaks protesting in the streets would do the same; spend their time testing theories rather than wearing costumes and acting like jackasses. It might do ’em some good. Then again, deep thought and street theater are opposites. I can wish though; if the prediction markets flood with hive mind freaks, I could see myself making some bigger bets and cleaning up.

Stay sane y’all.