Cassandra Report: Followup #2: Venezuela

From 2012 Cassandra Report III: Predictions 21 – 34

31. The oil based socialist utopia of Venezuela will continue it’s slide into oblivion.

It looks to me like Chavez has beaten his country like a rented mule and his time is just about up.  His 13 year socialist reign has been, for want of a better word, “craptacular” for his people.  He trashed a nation in less time than most of us take to wear out a Honda Civic.  It was a safe prediction.  Who didn’t see it coming?

I consider it a done deal because I see the three biggies; “oppression”, “economic disaster”, and “instability”:

1. Oppression of human rights?

Hugo Chavez urges Venezuela’s exit from OAS rights body.

“In a televised speech, Mr Chavez said the Inter-American Human Rights Commission (IACHR) was ‘a tool the US uses against us’.”

2. Economic disaster?

Insight: Post-election hangover looms for Venezuela economy.

“Chavez’s cash-driven push ahead of the vote in October will come with a heavy post-election hangover for the OPEC nation’s economy.  Inflation could hit 35 percent, the debt burden looks set to rise, and a third currency devaluation in as many years is looking inevitable.”

3. Power struggle?

Chavez’s surgery raises question about succession.

“With a tight reelection race brewing for the president, analysts said Wednesday that Venezuela could be thrown into turmoil because Chavez has resisted grooming a successor during his 13 years in power.

The result is a power vacuum that his camp will be hard-pressed to fill, especially if he is unable to campaign for the Oct. 7 elections or wins and then becomes physically incapable of governing.

‘Venezuela is living with the unsettling effects of prolonged, one-man rule,’ said Michael Shifter, president of the Washington-based Inter-American Dialogue think tank. ‘Anything can happen.’

Shifter said ‘a fierce power struggle and jockeying for position’ is nearly inevitable for Chavez’s ruling Socialist Party of Venezuela.”

Note: some readers might consider this case still unproven.  After all the “oppression” is mostly bitching about America (and who doesn’t do that?) and the economic disaster isn’t much different from Yankees and their Obama rainbows.  Still, a mere five months into 2012 I’m calling it.  I’m not expecting a turnaround.  Nobody else does either.  Unless he makes gold from straw before the cancer kills him and it’s followed by an inexplicable outbreak of peace and democracy during his wake…he’s caused a mess right through to the end.