A black swan event is one that’s never happened before but can and does occur. Because of it’s novelty, it shocks the hell out of people that don’t see it coming. If you’re trying hard to think logically, you know that everything had to happen “unexpectedly” a first time but we just don’t think that way.
Black swan horrors: I read a lot of history and see “unexpected events” everywhere. With 20:20 hindsight of reading it in a book hundreds of years later, the “unexpected event” almost seems inevitable. Halfway though the chapter can see exactly where things were headed. The people in the middle of events can’t step away from themselves to get the same perspective. This means reading history is sometimes like a horror movie; you can’t believe the dipshit teenagers take shelter in the creepy old farmhouse…
Person reading history centuries later: “Noooo! Don’t do that stupid thing!”
Person in the middle of the events: “Don’t worry, we’ve done this before and it more or less worked out. This time’s gonna’ be about the same.”
It’s crazy to ponder the effect of “unprecedented” on humans. We rely so much on precedent for our thinking that it limits our minds.
Limited thinking sometimes leads to death. American history before the civil war suggests nobody expected it to become the bloodbath that ensued. Once it got going, nobody could stop it. It went further off the rails than anyone expected. I suppose World War One and the French Revolutions might be a bit like that.
Those aren’t the best examples of “unexpected” but they’re good examples of “ignoring other options until you’ve plunged into total horror”.
Black swan miracles: Other “this has never happened before” events come completely out of nowhere. There’s just no way most folks could have reasonably expected it. Surprisingly, the outcome sometimes works out well for everyone. I call this the “black swan miracle”.
Miracles can and do happen. Later on, as we get used to the miracle, we forget all about the time when our current knowledge was “unprecedented”. We take it for granted. We become complacent. We get jaded. We never expect the next black swan miracle.
Here’s a black swan miracle that really happened:
New York City resident in 1899: “We’re fucked. In order to supply our growing population, we’re using 100,000 horses.”
Curmudgeon in 2021: “Yeah, so?”
New York City resident in 1899: “They’re dropping 2,500,000 pounds of shit on the streets every day! We live on an island, there’s only so much room for all that shit. Hauling it away is getting out of control. We can’t handle the problem.”
The Times of London in 1894: “We report that in 50 years every street in London will be buried under nine feet of manure!”*
Curmudgeon in 2021: “Relax. Aint’ gona happen.”
Everyone in the 1890’s: “The science is settled. We’re doomed!”
Curmudgeon in 2021: “There’s a new technology coming. Soon you’ll have carts that move without horses at all. No horses, no horseshit.”
New York City resident in 1899: “How will these carts move? Magic wands?”
Curmudgeon in 2021: “A new kind of metal engine. Runs on a small amount of liquid. Emits only vapor. You’re gonna’ love it.”
New York City resident in 1899: “Every cart since the dawn of mankind has been pulled by animals or people. That’s ten thousand years of history. Imaginary self moving magic carts have never existed. They are impossible.”
Curmudgeon in 2021: “Have I explained that black swans were impossible until someone saw one?
New York City resident in 1899: “Get away from me creep.”
The miracle really happened. Nobody solved the horseshit situation. Humanity solved the “magic carts that move differently than anything in human existence” situation. You cannot blame people for not expecting magic self moving horseless carriages.
It had a big impact on society. Everyone’s wealth and standard of living soared. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil got richer than God while a million horse liveries faded out. Etc…
(The change was profound. We now refer to “buggy whip manufacturer” as a company that’s mired in obsolete technology. The Eastman Kodak Company is a more recent example. A hundred years of success with camera film led to them getting completely mauled by filmless digital cameras in the 1990’s.)
As for Manhattan, it was not buried in horseshit in 1905. Nor was any other city. In modern times, Americans only fret about shit in the streets where homeless humans shit in the gutters. Frankly, I’d prefer Clydesdales shit to drug addict shit but I don’t live in California so it’s none of my business.
On to part 3
A.C.
*Notice the eternal ability of the press to predict almost certain doom at X years from today. I suspect the timing of the doom is key. It needs to be not too soon (next Tuesday is too soon and nobody will buy it) but not more than one generation into the future (200 years from now is far enough away that nobody cares). Mass starvation, the rise of Cthulhu, a revival of disco, war with Eastasia… whatever it is must be arriving at just the right time in the future. Far away but not ignorably far away. That’s why Al Gore of the early 2000’s talked about glaciers disappearing in 15-ish years. In 2021 we can see that most glaciers didn’t get the memo but Al isn’t in the press. Plucky Greta took his place and restarted the process with new dates. Maybe Al gave her some pointers.