Adaptive Curmudgeon

PredictIt: The Curmudgeon Chickens Out

Breaking report… a sure bet looks hazy now!

Here’s a summary of recent political events:

“I’ve got you this time, Brer Rabbit,” said Brer Fox, jumping up and shaking off the dust. “You’ve sassed me for the very last time. Now I wonder what I should do with you?”

Brer Rabbit’s eyes got very large. “Oh please Brer Fox, whatever you do, please don’t throw me into the briar patch.”

“Maybe I should roast you over a fire and eat you,” mused Brer Fox. “No, that’s too much trouble. Maybe I’ll hang you instead.”

“Roast me! Hang me! Do whatever you please,” said Brer Rabbit. “Only please, Brer Fox, please don’t throw me into the briar patch.”

“If I’m going to hang you, I’ll need some string,” said Brer Fox. “And I don’t have any string handy. But the stream’s not far away, so maybe I’ll drown you instead.”

“Drown me! Roast me! Hang me! Do whatever you please,” said Brer Rabbit. “Only please, Brer Fox, please don’t throw me into the briar patch.”

“The briar patch, eh?” said Brer Fox. “What a wonderful idea! You’ll be torn into little pieces!”

Grabbing up the tar-covered rabbit, Brer Fox swung him around and around and then flung him head over heels into the briar patch. Brer Rabbit let out such a scream as he fell that all of Brer Fox’s fur stood straight up. Brer Rabbit fell into the briar bushes with a crash and a mighty thump. Then there was silence.

Brer Fox cocked one ear toward the briar patch, listening for whimpers of pain. But he heard nothing. Brer Fox cocked the other ear toward the briar patch, listening for Brer Rabbit’s death rattle. He heard nothing.

Then Brer Fox heard someone calling his name. He turned around and looked up the hill. Brer Rabbit was sitting on a log combing the tar out of his fur with a wood chip and looking smug.

“I was bred and born in the briar patch, Brer Fox,” he called. “Born and bred in the briar patch.”

And Brer Rabbit skipped away as merry as a cricket while Brer Fox ground his teeth in rage and went home.

That’s the best summary one could ever ask for. You heard it here first, Trump was born and bred in the briar patch and everything else is fake news.


Back on topic… about a month ago I wrote:

I bet NO on “Donald Trump’s job approval rate on one or more days on or before December 31, 2019, shall be 55% or higher … blah, blah, blah … Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll”.

[It was posted live only yesterday but written a month ago.] At the time of writing, the press was going full retard over Shampeachment Part II: Throw Orange Man Into The Briar Patch. It was just launching. Trump’s numbers were about where they normally are but everyone everywhere predicted them to drop precipitously. I doubted they’d drop much but they certainly weren’t going to go up. All I had to do was sit back and wait! With only 6 weeks left in the year, Houdini himself couldn’t slip that trap and come out strong enough to break 55%.

I wrote:

“I bet against Trump breaking 55% and bought in at $0.85. Now it’s trading at $0.96 (this post is written during the second impeachment panic but published later). I should cash out now instead of waiting for the last $0.04 but I’m not sure. It’s a first world problem. Do I grab 13% profit because people just voted about the impeachment that will never happen, or hold 2 months for 18% maximum?”

Logic was on my side… the entirety of the DC swamp, including Nancy Pelosi’s flying monkeys and every “bubble headed bleached blonde who comes on at five” were out to get him. Even Trump, master of the arts of being human Teflon, couldn’t emerge unscathed. (Important note on that link below.)

I was wrong. Yesterday this hit the wires; Trump’s Approval Jumps to 52% Same Day Pelosi Announces Impeachment Will Proceed:

“[t]he same day House Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) announced Democrats will proceed with articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump – the president’s approval jumped to 52%, its highest level in more than two months.”

He’s three points out and gaining. How the fuck is he gaining?

That magnificent bastard is winning so hard that he might slip the noose on my easy negative bet.

It’s impressive. He might traipse through the kill zone with guns are blazing at him only to come out stronger. I stand to lose $0.85 dammit.

[Update: I bailed out on my ONE share at a minor profit. I gained gain less than I’d have if I’d cased out at the beginning of Shampeachment II but I still came out with a profit. I lost the opportunity for a wee bit more profit but I locked out any chance of a loss. I can no longer rule out the possibility that Trump’s opponents are so galactically inept as to cost me the whole enchilada. Remember, if he gains 3% by New Year’s Eve my $0.85 investment drops to zero. The Curmudgeon didn’t lose but I chickened out in the final stretch. Never bet against Trump!]

You know what they say about playing poker: “If you don’t know who the patsy is, it’s you”. Whether Trump’s playing 5D Chess on Congress or the Dems are so bad as to propel a clueless goofball over 55% is irrelevant. 52% is too close to 55% and I’m out.

A.C.

P.S. Don Henley and the Eagles made the best “Fake News Sux” song in creation. Back in 1982 they cranked out “Dirty Laundry”. (You think shitty biased news is a new thing?) What’s new information is that the entirety of the web has been scrubbed of every good version of that awesome song. All that remains is a shitty 2015 “tribute” recording that’s the lame ass lite beer of rock music. Gross! The fact that You-Tube and Google hid or removed every bit of a 37 year old song that mocks the press… that’s what you call “a clue”.

Exit mobile version