I’ve been ignoring PredictIt and everything but the weather (which spent the last several months trying to kill me). My minuscule bets on PredictIt are floating along with whatever currents affect their markets.
So, what does the wisdom of the markets say?
First, the market says frail post-operative former cancer patients who are 86 years old get healthier with time. Go figure!
I’ve lost a few cents a share on my creepy “who will leave SCOTUS first” bet. I bet on Ruth Bader Ginsberg “quits” first. Sadly, this is a deadpool. Ginsberg won’t retire; she’s gonna’ hold on to that post until her last moment on earth. That depresses me. I’d never wish “work until you die” on my worst enemy. Then again it’s her choice and she’s certainly free to make it. Regardless, the share value on “Ginsberg first” is slowly dropping.
This makes no sense to me. She’s not getting any younger. Also, the press is acting like they didn’t just drink the Kool-Aid but freebased it. The story is; “she’s super extra healthy and expressing doubt about it proves you’re a racist, misogynist, poopy-head”. Yet there’s very limited photographic evidence of anything she does. I find it creepy. It reminds me of how Popes and Fidel Castro were super fit and healthy until they were dead last week. Heck, the press dug up Kavinaugh’s high school yearbook but can’t hire a flunky to get a weekly photo of Ginsberg standing upright? Her 86th birthday went by with less fanfare than a fart in a hurricane.
It stinks of wishful thinking over actuarial statistics. At any rate, I’m sitting on my tiny holdings. This a countermarket move. Time will tell if I’m an idiot. I tip my hat to her, Ginsberg is the Keith Richards of the legal system.
Second: the markets are saying Trump is more likely to win the Republican primary and election but it’s less likely that a Republican will win the 2020 election. Go figure!
I’ve got a few cents on Trump (OMG! Russia, Russia, Russia, the walls are closing in on him!) as “2020 Presidential Winner”. That’s gone slightly up.
I’ve got a few cents on Trump (Literally Hitler! When In Danger, When In Doubt, Run In Circles, Scream And Shout!!!) as “2020 Republican Nominee”. That’s gone up too.
I’ve also got a few cents on Republican (Stupid Party) for “Which party wins the Presidency in 2020” and that’s gone down.
So the markets say the following:
- It’s increasingly likely Trump will win Republican Primary.
- It’s increasingly likely that Trump will win the election.
- It’s decreasingly likely that a Republican will win the presidency.
You’re smart folks. Anyone want to square that circle? I would expect all three to have the same momentum. Who the hell knows what it means? It hurts my head to think too much about it so I’m sitting on it and waiting.
Third: the markets are saying the future looks bright:
I took a bath (of small proportion) when I bought YES on “Trump 1st term recession”. I figured it was fairly likely there’d be a recession (2 quarters) in any 4 year term. I figured it even more likely since Trump started out with a damn near rocket launch. After going stratospheric for a few years virtually anything will tend to run out of steam?
I may be wrong.
My shares already lost 13% and they’re dropping. I guess America still isn’t tired of winning?
I’m a glass is half empty kind of guy so I’m holding on “yes there will be a recession”. This may be a bad move. The clock is ticking and I may need a black swan event within the next 18 months.
As always, this is tiny amounts. If you play the rent money on PredictIt you’re on your own. I’m just using the market as a “prediction market” and a test to see if I’m a complete airhead. YMMV.