Adaptive Curmudgeon

PredictIt

[Forgive the light posting lately. Shit happens.]

I mentioned earlier that I was playing around with PredictIt. (Don’t get excited, I’m risking money amounts that would barely buy a pizza.) In a market, any market, the devil is in the details. I had a few folks ask questions about it. Since I’ve gone a bit deeper down the rabbit hole, I can offer a bit more information.


Now some details for the sharks out there. You know who you are, the ones that nobody would play Monopoly with even when you were nine…. yeah I’m talking to you.


One last question: What is the “trader level” on my account?

What this means to me is that they’re trying to appeal to social media freaks. I can’t see how it matters in any possible real world situation.

I grudgingly accept one exception. Every market has a forum with chatter… that I ignore. Suppose you want to fuck with people? You buy a gazillion shares of something that’s pretty sure. Say you spend $98 to buy 100 shares at $0.98 each for “Will the sun shine tomorrow?” When Armageddon doesn’t happen it closes at $1. You “earn” $2 which is $1.80 after the 10% fee. You risked $98 and earned $1.80 for a profit of 1.8%. Meh.

However, you made a profit on 100 shares and your trader level is elevated to “Krugman”. (I’m joking here, Krugman has never been right about anything as far as I can tell.)

Then you pick a market, buy in, and then blather all over the forum how space rays from your toaster explain everything. People who read the forum see your high rating, (Oracle?) and believe your bullshit. Not realizing you were betting counter to your posts they all buy in, do what you recommend, and then you fleece their ass like the vicious capitalist honey badger you are.

If people pay attention to trader ratings and if they listen to forums and if they’re dumb sheep, this might work. It might not be moral but I’m not thinking it’s illegal. (YMMV.) It’s the “pump and dump” gambit applied to a forum that may have gullible snowflakes. I’m too fuckin’ lazy for such things but y’all are welcome to have at it. Good luck. Tell ’em Curmudgeon sent ya’.


Last comments. This is a toy for fun. I don’t advocate serious gambling any more than I advocate drinking a full bottle of tequila among strangers.

I am finding it fun to watch though. I’ve got $20 in it now and I’ve gotten a “case of beer and a pizza” worth fun out of it.

I like it as a fabulous reality check. Whenever NPR screeches “Blue Wave Enough To Kill The Tidy Bowl Man” and/or Reason Magazine predicts “Trump Will Literally Vaporize Nancy Pelosi With The Power of His Awesomeness” I check the markets. As far as I can tell they nudge to and fro a penny or two… indicating to me that it’s all bullshit. Clearly, nobody’s putting real money on their dumbass ideas. This tells me a lot.

Incidentally, when someone invades my world with “Russia, Russia, Russia, this time we’ll impeach Orange Hitler for sure”, I eagerly tell them all about that very market on PredictIt. I urge them to cash in on their knowledge. “Dude, you’re on to something! I see it now. It’s so obvious! You should make a bet with real money so you can buy a jet ski with the proceeds!” Funny thing, nobody’s done it. Almost like they’re saying words that even they don’t believe.

Incidentally, I made a risky bet at $0.35 a share. Almost two beers worth of money. (I’m a low stakes player y’all!) On a yes/no market it’s a longshot. I was lured in by the chance at a 135% payoff if it goes to $1. Was I wise? Will I crow like a fuckin’ rooster if I “win”. Who knows.

It’s foolish to play with real money but people who won’t put up real money are just blowing smoke out of their ass. Someone help me with the conundrum in the comments.

A.C.

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