I had a story in mind. One that really happened. (I don’t have to be creative, I just have to be observant in a mad world.) It had a simple punchline.
But what I thought was obvious (and funny) wasn’t. While I was off grid, everyone lost their goddamn minds. Where do I pick up the thread?
I theorized “news” (which isn’t news at all) follows Cycles. A Topic is selected (or invented). Then players from both sides (which I might derisively call the “uniparty”) play their assigned roles. They act in Stages, each one following the other. Everyone knows what to do and nobody derails the call and response format. To deviate from the pattern, for any reason, be it ineptitude, a reasoned choice, an unscripted but heartfelt opinion, or even honest personal ideals, is verboten. (They’ll move heaven and earth to replace politicians who misbehave with ones who stick with the format.)
As the Stages progress, the media breathlessly reports this crap like they didn’t know it was going to happen; keeping the populace wired. Ideally both sides harvest money and votes from a frantic citizenry. This continues until the last Stage is completed and the Cycle is done or the Topic upstaged by a different sexier Topic.
Once you spot the Topic, you can expect a repeat of it’s last Cycle. Do that and politics becomes predictable. It’s almost beautiful in it’s manipulative symmetry. You wonder if there ever was a time when it was not like this.
Back in my silly Novocaine story. I’d pinned the Kavanaugh Supreme Court Nomination as a Topic and recognized it’s Cycle as “Preening In The Mirror“. In a few minutes of CNN on mute I measured the situation as Stage C, the climax of “Preening In The Mirror”. This is the portion of the cycle where Congress Grandstands and protesters protest and everyone has a party at the expense of both decorum and the nominee’s self esteem.
Stage D is when everyone can either come to their senses and just vote or they can go full retard and lead to Stage E. There’s no chance in hell 2018 is going to lead to an outbreak in compromise and reasonable behavior; so Stage D was certain to lead to Stage E.
Stage E is the “October Surprise”. This is the most colorful part. I made some predictions:
- Kavinaugh would be accused of something. This is guaranteed. The nominee could be Jesus Christ and there’d still be an accusation.
- The accusation comes in the 4th quarter of the game. Timed for maximum damage.
- The accusation would be old. Many years. Decades. Many decades. Most of a human lifetime. A new variation on the theme might involve crossing the college threshold and leaking into high school. I made that guess by noticing how young Kavinaugh (age 53) looked compared to Dianne Feinstein (aged 85). (Count on the Senate could make someone 53 seem “boyishly young”.)
- The accusation would be well beyond the statute of limitations, possibly not even a crime. If it was a crime it wasn’t reported at the time. Regardless, there will be no corroborating evidence whatsoever.
- The accuser would be biased. I was guessing an NPR reporter or some politician’s wife. I don’t know why, but the October Surprise accuser is usually female. After one accuser shows up, others will follow. They tend to be even less corroborated. None took action at the time.
- The accusation has to be something immoral but not too criminally actionable; ideally creepy/weird with shades of grey.
- Clearly criminal; “Kavinaugh murdered Mr. Smith”, is no good. A clear crime may find it’s way into courts which have evidentary procedures and presumption of innocence. That’s the last thing anyone wants in an October Surprise. What’s best is a “leak” of a heavily redacted FBI investigation or an IRS audit or “sealed” divorce proceedings. Even an old accusation on Facebook is fine.
- Traditionally accusations involve sex but I think that’s about to change. I think sex has been done to death. Especially since it was used pretty much identically against Clarence Thomas.
- Bork got Borked over pot but that didn’t seem right.
- White collar crime accusations are good… but they’re quickly quelled by a paper trail. I doubt that’s a salacious enough topic for 2018.
- I guessed something about cheating in college (or high school?!?).
So here was my prediction:
“Suddenly, after decades of distinguished service, weeks of questioning, and six FBI investigations we’ve found ‘Jill Jones’ who says she saw the nominee cheat on a spelling test in 12th grade. She didn’t report it to the authorities, there’s no evidence whatsoever, there’s probably no law broken, and she’s a member of the ‘Kavinaugh sucks donkey balls’ Facebook group.”
Thus would begin Stage E.
Here’s the punchline. It took 20 minutes.
The dentist showed up and shoved what felt like a cement mixer in my face. After some abnormal sounds and a shocking application of pliers, it was over.
They left me in my chair, drooling and bleeding; to “recover”. I wouldn’t let them turn on the infernal TV. I fired up my tablet, jacked into the wifi from the coffee shop across the street, and checked the “news”.
BAM! Moving from crayon level (muted CNN) to laser guided scope (internet search) I verified that Stage E was in full swing. That fast!
My predictions weren’t perfect, but they were damn good:
- Kavinaugh would be accused of something? Win! Called it.
- The accusation was timed for maximum damage? Win! Called it.
- The accusation would be old? Win! I called it.
- They crossed the college threshold and now were discussing high school? Win! This is an especially good prediction. I made the call the first time it happened. Up until… yesterday, behavior in High School was more or less ignored.
- Well beyond the statute of limitations? Win! I called it.
- Possibly not even a crime? Miss. Sexual assault is less than rape but it’s a crime.
- If it was a crime it wasn’t reported at the time. Win! I called it.
- No corroborating evidence whatsoever? Win! Was there any doubt?
- The accuser would be biased. Close but not as obvious as I expected.
- I expected an NPR reporter or a politician’s wife but I got a California Psychology professor who scrubbed her Facebook profile in advance.
- I don’t know why, but the October Surprise accuser is usually female. If it’s a sex thing it’s likely female accusing a male. I’ll call it a draw on that one.
- Often, after one accuser shows up, others will follow. Not yet. (Update… in due time a few others showed up.)
- The accusation has to be immoral but not criminally actionable? Win. I called it!
- Nothing that touches an actual court of law? Win. I called it!
- In my opinion sex has been done to death. Wrong! Fail! Sex hasn’t yet been been done to death. A big miss on my part.
- I guessed something about cheating in college (or high school?!?). Wrong! Not academic at all.
I found myself chuckling, despite being in dental pain. I’d made a prediction based on nothing more than watching the ebb and flow of Cycles (or Propaganda if you prefer that term). I’d called the content of an October Surprise with stunning accuracy.
Then I made two more predictions:
- This is too obvious. If I can see it that clearly so can lots of other people. It’ll blow over in 3 days.
- This is irrelevant.
- Every Democrat is/will/always has voted against Kavinaugh.
- Every Republican is/will/always has voted for Kavinaugh.
Then I went off line for several days of bleeding and drooling. I wrote some shit that went live (a bit delayed) while the game was being played. Then I went off line again. As it played out… following the script exactly as expected… I was horrified to see real people suffering. It’s Stage E of a pre-ordained, predictable, can see it coming from miles away, game… and it is terrible that people should take this to heart. I hammered out a quick post that everyone should take the weekend off.
So was I correct?:
- This is too obvious. It’ll blow over in 3 days. Wrong! It’s devastating to many people on both sides. My heart breaks for them.
- Every Democrat is/will/always has voted against Kavinaugh. BINGO! Nothing changed anyone’s mind since July 9th, 2018.
- Every Republican is/will/always has voted for Kavinaugh. BINGO! Nothing changed anyone’s mind since July 9th, 2018.
So there you have it. We all should have known the vote outcome almost 3 months in advance. I thought the whole “Bork as a verb” and “high tech lynching” thing was just so plain and obvious that it was funny. Something we could all chuckle about. But people fell for it. Hard. It bothers me that politics is hurting so many people.
Here’s my next prediction:
- Every man (and many women) nominated by an R (or sometimes a D) will continue to be accused of something sexual. All of them. Every time. Even if they’re Boy Scouts with squeaky clean behavior. Especially then.
In the meantime. They telegraph their moves y’all. The script was written in stone long ago. It shouldn’t hit so hard because we all know what’s coming. Harden your heart or dodge because the game will continue until it doesn’t.